NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 28, 2016

Denny Hamlin
Winner
206
Laps
40
Entries
10
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 28, 2016, leading 76 of 206 laps. Austin Dillon finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 28, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Denny Hamlin
2 4 +2 Austin Dillon
3 7 +4 Joey Logano
4 11 +7 Cole Custer
5 8 +3 Justin Allgaier
6 5 -1 Kyle Larson
7 12 +5 Brandon Jones
8 10 +2 Ty Dillon
9 14 +5 Brennan Poole
10 17 +7 Brendan Gaughan
11 27 +16 Jeb Burton
12 2 -10 Daniel Suarez
13 19 +6 Ryan Sieg
14 18 +4 Blake Koch
15 31 +16 Garrett Smithley
16 13 -3 Ryan Blaney
17 16 -1 Ross Chastain
18 20 +2 Drew Herring
19 15 -4 Ryan Reed
20 21 +1 Jeremy Clements
21 23 +2 Dakoda Armstrong
22 26 +4 Ryan Preece
23 25 +2 J.J. Yeley
24 40 +16 Harrison Rhodes
25 30 +5 B.J. McLeod
26 35 +9 Martin Roy
27 9 -18 Bubba Wallace
28 6 -22 Elliott Sadler
29 22 -7 Spencer Gallagher
30 34 +4 Carl Long
31 1 -30 Erik Jones
32 37 +5 Derrike Cope
33 36 +3 Timmy Hill
34 29 -5 Jeff Green
35 38 +3 Mike Harmon
36 33 -3 Joey Gase
37 32 -5 Ray Black, Jr.
38 39 +1 Cody Ware
39 28 -11 Josh Wise
40 24 -16 Matt DiBenedetto
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 8.2 1 +7.2
2 Austin Dillon 17.1 2 +15.1
3 Joey Logano 14.7 3 +11.7
4 Cole Custer 22.9 4 +18.9
5 Justin Allgaier 18.3 5 +13.3
6 Kyle Larson 12.7 6 +6.7
8 Ty Dillon 23.4 8 +15.4
9 Brennan Poole 24.7 9 +15.7
12 Daniel Suarez 14.0 12 +2.0
16 Ryan Blaney 9.2 16 -6.8
17 Ross Chastain 13.3 17 -3.7
22 Ryan Preece 10.1 22 -11.9
23 J.J. Yeley 28.8 23 +5.8
25 B.J. McLeod 24.8 25 -0.2
27 Bubba Wallace 12.7 27 -14.3
31 Erik Jones 16.7 31 -14.3
33 Timmy Hill 23.9 33 -9.1
36 Joey Gase 23.4 36 -12.6
38 Cody Ware 56.1 38 +18.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 14 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE?
Denny Hamlin won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 28, 2016.