NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA
Iowa Speedway — June 19, 2016
Sam Hornish Jr.
Winner
250
Laps
40
Entries
4
Leaders
Sam Hornish Jr. won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway on June 19, 2016, leading 183 of 250 laps. Ty Dillon finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Ty Dillon |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Alex Bowman |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Elliott Sadler |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Brennan Poole |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Ben Kennedy |
| 11 | 11 | — | Ryan Reed |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Brandon Jones |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Blake Koch |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 16 | 16 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Justin Marks |
| 19 | 29 | +10 | B.J. McLeod |
| 20 | 17 | -3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 21 | 14 | -7 | Ryan Sieg |
| 22 | 24 | +2 | Garrett Smithley |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Travis Kvapil |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Mario Gosselin |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 26 | 39 | +13 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 27 | 1 | -26 | Erik Jones |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Mike Harmon |
| 29 | 13 | -16 | Drew Herring |
| 30 | 30 | — | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 31 | 40 | +9 | Paige Decker |
| 32 | 18 | -14 | Ryan Preece |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Jeff Green |
| 34 | 38 | +4 | Derrike Cope |
| 35 | 27 | -8 | Timmy Hill |
| 36 | 25 | -11 | Dexter Bean |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 38 | 34 | -4 | Carl Long |
| 39 | 28 | -11 | Tyler Young |
| 40 | 36 | -4 | Josh Reaume |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 2 | +21.4 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 3 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 5 | +8.5 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 7 | +11.3 |
| 8 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 8 | +16.7 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 9 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 19 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 19 | +5.8 |
| 20 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 20 | +8.8 |
| 25 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 25 | -1.6 |
| 27 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 27 | -10.3 |
| 32 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 32 | -21.9 |
| 35 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 35 | -11.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Sam Hornish Jr.: has 9 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 11.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 4 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (1 win), finishing P32 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 11 starts, 8.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA?
Sam Hornish Jr. won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA was held at Iowa Speedway on June 19, 2016.