NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO
Pocono Raceway — June 4, 2016
Kyle Larson
Winner
53
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO at Pocono Raceway on June 4, 2016, leading 27 of 53 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Ty Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Ty Dillon |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 5 | — | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 6 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 7 | 7 | — | Paul Menard |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Brandon Jones |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 10 | 10 | — | Alex Bowman |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | Brennan Poole |
| 13 | 11 | -2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 15 | 12 | -3 | Blake Koch |
| 16 | 40 | +24 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | Ryan Preece |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 19 | 29 | +10 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 30 | +10 | Mario Gosselin |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | B.J. McLeod |
| 23 | 34 | +11 | Joey Gase |
| 24 | 35 | +11 | Alex Guenette |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Ryan Ellis |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Brandon Gdovic |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 28 | 38 | +10 | Todd Peck |
| 29 | 15 | -14 | Ryan Sieg |
| 30 | 39 | +9 | Mike Harmon |
| 31 | 18 | -13 | Jeremy Clements |
| 32 | 32 | — | T.J. Bell |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Ryan Reed |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | Jeff Green |
| 35 | 28 | -7 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 36 | 20 | -16 | Josh Wise |
| 37 | 37 | — | Derrike Cope |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | Carl Long |
| 39 | 9 | -30 | Justin Allgaier |
| 40 | 21 | -19 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 1 | +11.7 |
| 2 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 2 | +14.7 |
| 3 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 3 | +20.4 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 4 | +13.0 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 5 | +9.7 |
| 9 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 9 | +5.0 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
| 12 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 12 | +12.7 |
| 13 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 13 | +15.8 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 16 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 17 | -6.9 |
| 19 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 19 | -5.7 |
| 22 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 22 | +2.8 |
| 23 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 23 | +0.4 |
| 39 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 39 | -20.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 19 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 9.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 11.1 avg finish, finishing P17 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 16 starts, 19.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO?
Kyle Larson won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO at Pocono Raceway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT POCONO was held at Pocono Raceway on June 4, 2016.