Lucas Oil 150
Phoenix Raceway — November 9, 2018
Brett Moffitt
Winner
150
Laps
32
Entries
6
Leaders
Brett Moffitt won the 2018 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway on November 9, 2018, leading 19 of 150 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Harrison Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, November 9, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Brett Moffitt |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Noah Gragson |
| 3 | 3 | — | Harrison Burton |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Grant Enfinger |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Stewart Friesen |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Tyler Ankrum |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Johnny Sauter |
| 8 | 8 | — | Derek Kraus |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | Christian Eckes |
| 10 | 16 | +6 | Sheldon Creed |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Matt Crafton |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Ben Rhodes |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Chase Purdy |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Tyler Dippel |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Riley Herbst |
| 16 | 29 | +13 | Dawson Cram |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Todd Gilliland |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Tanner Thorson |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 20 | 24 | +4 | Stefan Parsons |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | D.J. Kennington |
| 22 | 17 | -5 | Myatt Snider |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | Jordan Anderson |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Justin Fontaine |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Landon Huffman |
| 26 | 28 | +2 | Jason M. White (British Columbia) |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Jesse Iwuji |
| 28 | 2 | -26 | Justin Haley |
| 29 | 7 | -22 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 30 | 20 | -10 | Austin Hill |
| 31 | 31 | — | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 32 | 23 | -9 | Joe Nemechek |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Moffitt | 1 | 7 | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | 2 | 8 | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Grant Enfinger | — | 6 | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| Tyler Ankrum | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Sauter | 8 | — | — | — |
| Derek Kraus | — | 10 | — | — |
| Christian Eckes | 10 | — | — | — |
| Sheldon Creed | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Crafton | 7 | 2 | — | — |
| Ben Rhodes | 9 | 5 | — | — |
| Chase Purdy | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Dippel | — | — | — | — |
| Riley Herbst | — | — | — | — |
| Dawson Cram | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| Tanner Thorson | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Wayne Self | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Parsons | — | — | — | — |
| D.J. Kennington | — | — | — | — |
| Myatt Snider | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Anderson | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Fontaine | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Huffman | — | — | — | — |
| Jason M. White (British Columbia) | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Iwuji | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | 6 | 4 | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 5 | 9 | — | — |
| Austin Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 2 | +21.0 |
| 8 | Derek Kraus | 22.2 | 8 | +14.2 |
| 15 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 15 | +7.1 |
| 17 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 17 | +0.1 |
| 28 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 28 | -6.8 |
| 29 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 29 | -8.9 |
| 30 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 30 | -9.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brett Moffitt: has 8 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.9 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Todd Gilliland: was the model’s top pick based on 11 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 16.4 avg finish, finishing P17 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 13 starts, 17.8 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Lucas Oil 150?
Brett Moffitt won the 2018 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hattori Racing Enterprises.
Where was the 2018 Lucas Oil 150 held?
The 2018 Lucas Oil 150 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 9, 2018.