North Carolina Education Lottery 200
Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 18, 2018
Johnny Sauter
Winner
134
Laps
32
Entries
5
Leaders
Johnny Sauter won the 2018 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 18, 2018, leading 71 of 134 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Brandon Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, May 18, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Johnny Sauter |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 28 | +25 | Brandon Jones |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Brett Moffitt |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Ben Rhodes |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Stewart Friesen |
| 7 | 27 | +20 | Parker Kligerman |
| 8 | 2 | -6 | Noah Gragson |
| 9 | 9 | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 10 | 3 | -7 | Todd Gilliland |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Matt Crafton |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Grant Enfinger |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Chris Eggleston |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Justin Haley |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Myatt Snider |
| 16 | 24 | +8 | Jesse Little |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | Cody Coughlin |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Austin Hill |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | Dalton Sargeant |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Jordan Anderson |
| 21 | 16 | -5 | Daniel Hemric |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Wendell Chavous |
| 23 | 23 | — | Robby Lyons |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Josh Reaume |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Bayley Currey |
| 26 | 26 | — | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 27 | 19 | -8 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Timmy Hill |
| 29 | 31 | +2 | Mike Harmon |
| 30 | 18 | -12 | Justin Fontaine |
| 31 | 25 | -6 | Norm Benning |
| 32 | 32 | — | J.J. Yeley |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Sauter | 3 | 5 | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 2 | — | — |
| Brandon Jones | — | 9 | — | — |
| Brett Moffitt | 1 | 3 | — | — |
| Ben Rhodes | — | 6 | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | — | — | — | — |
| Parker Kligerman | 7 | — | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | 10 | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | 8 | 4 | — | — |
| Matt Crafton | 9 | 7 | — | — |
| Grant Enfinger | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Eggleston | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | 2 | 8 | — | — |
| Myatt Snider | — | — | — | — |
| Jesse Little | 10 | — | — | — |
| Cody Coughlin | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sargeant | 4 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Anderson | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hemric | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell Chavous | — | — | — | — |
| Robby Lyons | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Reaume | — | — | — | — |
| Bayley Currey | — | — | — | — |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Wayne Self | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Mike Harmon | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Fontaine | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Benning | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 8 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 8 | +13.4 |
| 9 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 9 | +10.1 |
| 10 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 10 | +9.1 |
| 14 | Justin Haley | 19.9 | 14 | +5.9 |
| 18 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 28 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 28 | -4.1 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 32 | -3.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Johnny Sauter: has 25 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 19.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 68 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 8.4 avg finish (17 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 68 starts, 8.4 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 North Carolina Education Lottery 200?
Johnny Sauter won the 2018 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway driving for GMS Racing.
Where was the 2018 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 held?
The 2018 North Carolina Education Lottery 200 was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 18, 2018.