NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway — August 17, 2018
Kyle Larson
Winner
310
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2018, leading 202 of 310 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, August 17, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 2 | — | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Justin Allgaier |
| 4 | 9 | +5 | Cole Custer |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 6 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 7 | 22 | +15 | Michael Annett |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Chase Elliott |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Tyler Reddick |
| 10 | 5 | -5 | Matt Tifft |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Ryan Sieg |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Ross Chastain |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Jeremy Clements |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Austin Cindric |
| 15 | 8 | -7 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Garrett Smithley |
| 17 | 16 | -1 | Ryan Reed |
| 18 | 26 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | B.J. McLeod |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Jairo Avila Jr. |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | David Starr |
| 22 | 12 | -10 | Ryan Truex |
| 23 | 20 | -3 | Alex Labbe |
| 24 | 11 | -13 | Daniel Hemric |
| 25 | 35 | +10 | Spencer Boyd |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Jeff Green |
| 27 | 38 | +11 | Bayley Currey |
| 28 | 28 | — | Josh Williams |
| 29 | 7 | -22 | Brandon Jones |
| 30 | 30 | — | Chad Finchum |
| 31 | 39 | +8 | Stephen Leicht |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Vinnie Miller |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Carl Long |
| 34 | 13 | -21 | Chase Briscoe |
| 35 | 37 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 36 | 1 | -35 | Kyle Busch |
| 37 | 24 | -13 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 38 | 31 | -7 | Timmy Hill |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 40 | 33 | -7 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 2 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 4 | +19.0 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 5 | +7.1 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 8 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 9 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 12 | +1.8 |
| 14 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 14 | +3.0 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 18 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 18 | +4.0 |
| 19 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 19 | +6.6 |
| 21 | David Starr | 20.2 | 21 | -0.8 |
| 22 | Ryan Truex | 15.6 | 22 | -6.4 |
| 30 | Chad Finchum | 22.1 | 30 | -7.9 |
| 34 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 34 | -21.4 |
| 35 | Josh Bilicki | 29.4 | 35 | -5.6 |
| 36 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 36 | -20.4 |
| 38 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 38 | -13.7 |
| 40 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 40 | -11.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 37 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 17 starts, 14.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Kyle Larson won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2018.