NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 17, 2018

Kyle Larson
Winner
310
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2018, leading 202 of 310 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Friday, August 17, 2018
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Kyle Larson
2 2 Christopher Bell
3 10 +7 Justin Allgaier
4 9 +5 Cole Custer
5 4 -1 Joey Logano
6 6 Elliott Sadler
7 22 +15 Michael Annett
8 15 +7 Chase Elliott
9 14 +5 Tyler Reddick
10 5 -5 Matt Tifft
11 21 +10 Ryan Sieg
12 18 +6 Ross Chastain
13 19 +6 Jeremy Clements
14 17 +3 Austin Cindric
15 8 -7 Ty Dillon
16 25 +9 Garrett Smithley
17 16 -1 Ryan Reed
18 26 +8 Joey Gase
19 23 +4 B.J. McLeod
20 27 +7 Jairo Avila Jr.
21 32 +11 David Starr
22 12 -10 Ryan Truex
23 20 -3 Alex Labbe
24 11 -13 Daniel Hemric
25 35 +10 Spencer Boyd
26 29 +3 Jeff Green
27 38 +11 Bayley Currey
28 28 Josh Williams
29 7 -22 Brandon Jones
30 30 Chad Finchum
31 39 +8 Stephen Leicht
32 34 +2 Vinnie Miller
33 36 +3 Carl Long
34 13 -21 Chase Briscoe
35 37 +2 Josh Bilicki
36 1 -35 Kyle Busch
37 24 -13 Ray Black, Jr.
38 31 -7 Timmy Hill
39 40 +1 Morgan Shepherd
40 33 -7 J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Larson 8.6 1 +7.6
2 Christopher Bell 8.6 2 +6.6
3 Justin Allgaier 17.7 3 +14.7
4 Cole Custer 23.0 4 +19.0
5 Joey Logano 12.1 5 +7.1
8 Chase Elliott 8.3 8 +0.3
9 Tyler Reddick 9.9 9 +0.9
12 Ross Chastain 13.8 12 +1.8
14 Austin Cindric 17.0 14 +3.0
15 Ty Dillon 24.3 15 +9.3
18 Joey Gase 22.0 18 +4.0
19 B.J. McLeod 25.6 19 +6.6
21 David Starr 20.2 21 -0.8
22 Ryan Truex 15.6 22 -6.4
30 Chad Finchum 22.1 30 -7.9
34 Chase Briscoe 12.6 34 -21.4
35 Josh Bilicki 29.4 35 -5.6
36 Kyle Busch 15.6 36 -20.4
38 Timmy Hill 24.3 38 -13.7
40 J.J. Yeley 28.1 40 -11.9

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Larson: has 37 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 17 starts, 14.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Kyle Larson won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2018.