NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA
Daytona International Speedway — July 5, 2019
Ross Chastain
Winner
100
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Ross Chastain won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway on July 5, 2019, leading 49 of 100 laps. Justin Haley finished second; Christopher Bell rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, July 5, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Justin Haley |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Christopher Bell |
| 4 | 19 | +15 | Austin Cindric |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Stephen Leicht |
| 6 | 33 | +27 | Brandon Brown |
| 7 | 20 | +13 | Jeff Green |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Gray Gaulding |
| 9 | 37 | +28 | Jeremy Clements |
| 10 | 28 | +18 | Matt Mills |
| 11 | 27 | +16 | Vinnie Miller |
| 12 | 29 | +17 | Stefan Parsons |
| 13 | 36 | +23 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 14 | 35 | +21 | Garrett Smithley |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Noah Gragson |
| 16 | 1 | -15 | Tyler Reddick |
| 17 | 12 | -5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Riley Herbst |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Chris Cockrum |
| 20 | 18 | -2 | Timmy Hill |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Shane Lee |
| 22 | 21 | -1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 23 | 6 | -17 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 24 | 14 | -10 | Ryan Sieg |
| 25 | 3 | -22 | Michael Annett |
| 26 | 15 | -11 | Cole Custer |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Chad Finchum |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Josh Williams |
| 29 | 13 | -16 | Caesar Bacarella |
| 30 | 17 | -13 | Brandon Jones |
| 31 | 23 | -8 | Scott Lagasse Jr. |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | David Starr |
| 33 | 30 | -3 | B.J. McLeod |
| 34 | 9 | -25 | Sheldon Creed |
| 35 | 10 | -25 | Chase Briscoe |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Joe Nemechek |
| 37 | 24 | -13 | Landon Cassill |
| 38 | 2 | -36 | A.J. Allmendinger |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 1 | +16.4 |
| 2 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 2 | +21.4 |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | 17.4 | 3 | +14.4 |
| 4 | Austin Cindric | 20.1 | 4 | +16.1 |
| 15 | Noah Gragson | 24.0 | 15 | +9.0 |
| 16 | Tyler Reddick | 13.6 | 16 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Justin Allgaier | 21.1 | 17 | +4.1 |
| 18 | Riley Herbst | 23.7 | 18 | +5.7 |
| 20 | Timmy Hill | 22.8 | 20 | +2.8 |
| 22 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.5 | 22 | -1.5 |
| 26 | Cole Custer | 23.4 | 26 | -2.6 |
| 27 | Chad Finchum | 22.9 | 27 | -4.1 |
| 32 | David Starr | 21.1 | 32 | -10.9 |
| 33 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 33 | -7.5 |
| 35 | Chase Briscoe | 21.7 | 35 | -13.3 |
| 38 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 38 | -17.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Ross Chastain: has 32 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 13.9 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P16 on the day.
- Justin Haley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 24 starts, 16.5 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA?
Ross Chastain won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA was held at Daytona International Speedway on July 5, 2019.