NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 20, 2022

Kyle Larson

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 20, 2022, leading 7 of 82 laps. A.J. Allmendinger finished second; Sammy Smith rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2022

Winner

Kyle Larson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Kyle Larson	82	—	Running	7	0
2	4	+2	A.J. Allmendinger	82	—	Running	3	52
3	19	+16	Sammy Smith	82	—	Running	6	44
4	16	+12	Noah Gragson	82	—	Running	—	40
5	14	+9	Kaz Grala	82	—	Running	—	0
6	7	+1	Sam Mayer	82	—	Running	—	31
7	6	-1	Riley Herbst	82	—	Running	4	30
8	11	+3	Sheldon Creed	82	—	Running	—	37
9	17	+8	Josh Berry	82	—	Running	—	32
10	22	+12	Jeremy Clements	82	—	Running	2	34
11	5	-6	Cole Custer	82	—	Running	—	0
12	23	+11	Stefan Parsons	82	—	Running	—	0
13	34	+21	Ryan Sieg	82	—	Running	—	24
14	35	+21	Timmy Hill	82	—	Running	—	0
15	13	-2	Connor Mosack	82	—	Running	—	0
16	20	+4	Landon Cassill	82	—	Running	—	21
17	21	+4	Josh Bilicki	82	—	Running	—	0
18	26	+8	Anthony Alfredo	82	—	Running	—	19
19	33	+14	Andy Lally	82	—	Running	—	19
20	27	+7	Brad Perez	82	—	Running	—	0
21	31	+10	Preston Pardus	82	—	Running	—	16
22	25	+3	Kyle Weatherman	82	—	Running	—	21
23	32	+9	Scott Heckert	82	—	Running	—	14
24	12	-12	Brandon Jones	82	—	Running	—	13
25	1	-24	William Byron	82	—	Running	35	0
26	37	+11	Bayley Currey	82	—	Running	—	11
27	2	-25	Ty Gibbs	82	—	Running	25	19
28	15	-13	Ross Chastain	81	—	Running	—	0
29	38	+9	Blaine Perkins	80	—	Running	—	0
30	8	-22	Austin Hill	73	—	Running	—	7
31	9	-22	Daniel Hemric	58	—	DNF	—	6
32	30	-2	Brandon Brown	51	—	DNF	—	5
33	29	-4	Myatt Snider	50	—	DNF	—	4
34	36	+2	Kris Wright	30	—	DNF	—	3
35	18	-17	Alex Labbe	26	—	DNF	—	2
36	24	-12	Patrick Gallagher	14	—	DNF	—	1
37	28	-9	Jeb Burton	8	—	DNF	—	1
38	10	-28	Justin Allgaier	4	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Larson	12.9	1	+11.9	Moderate
2	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	2	+14.5	Coinflip
4	Noah Gragson	26.9	4	+22.9	High Confidence
7	Riley Herbst	25.7	7	+18.7	High Confidence
9	Josh Berry	28.4	9	+19.4	High Confidence
11	Cole Custer	25.7	11	+14.7	High Confidence
14	Timmy Hill	20.8	14	+6.8	Coinflip
17	Josh Bilicki	29.0	17	+12.0	High Confidence
18	Anthony Alfredo	21.4	18	+3.4	High Confidence
25	William Byron	11.5	25	-13.5	Moderate
27	Ty Gibbs	17.2	27	-9.8	Coinflip
28	Ross Chastain	16.2	28	-11.8	Coinflip
30	Austin Hill	21.4	30	-8.6	Moderate
38	Justin Allgaier	16.8	38	-21.2	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Larson: has 17 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 16.9 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P25 on the day.
Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P27. Track history: 5 starts, 13.0 avg finish.

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Track

Watkins Glen International

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen?

Kyle Larson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International.

Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen held?

The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen was held at Watkins Glen International on August 20, 2022.