NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway — November 5, 2022

Ty Gibbs
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders

Ty Gibbs won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on November 5, 2022, leading 125 of 200 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 5, 2022
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 1 Ty Gibbs
2 4 +2 Noah Gragson
3 11 +8 Justin Allgaier
4 6 +2 Landon Cassill
5 16 +11 A.J. Allmendinger
6 8 +2 Sheldon Creed
7 19 +12 Riley Herbst
8 10 +2 Daniel Hemric
9 14 +5 Austin Hill
10 2 -8 Sammy Smith
11 5 -6 Brandon Jones
12 3 -9 Nick Sanchez
13 9 -4 Josh Berry
14 35 +21 Kyle Weatherman
15 30 +15 Josh Williams
16 21 +5 Jeb Burton
17 37 +20 Rajah Caruth
18 33 +15 Alex Labbe
19 20 +1 Bayley Currey
20 7 -13 Ryan Sieg
21 17 -4 Parker Retzlaff
22 22 Kyle Sieg
23 18 -5 Kaz Grala
24 25 +1 Joey Gase
25 36 +11 Myatt Snider
26 31 +5 Kris Wright
27 28 +1 Jeremy Clements
28 15 -13 Stefan Parsons
29 26 -3 Brennan Poole
30 29 -1 J.J. Yeley
31 32 +1 Dawson Cram
32 24 -8 B.J. McLeod
33 34 +1 Mason Massey
34 13 -21 Sam Mayer
35 23 -12 Anthony Alfredo
36 38 +2 Joe Graf Jr.
37 27 -10 Brandon Brown
38 12 -26 Dillon Bassett
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Ty Gibbs 12.6 1 +11.6
2 Noah Gragson 23.0 2 +21.0
3 Justin Allgaier 17.7 3 +14.7
5 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 5 +13.3
7 Riley Herbst 22.1 7 +15.1
9 Austin Hill 20.2 9 +11.2
13 Josh Berry 19.0 13 +6.0
24 Joey Gase 22.0 24 -2.0
29 Brennan Poole 23.1 29 -5.9
30 J.J. Yeley 28.1 30 -1.9
32 B.J. McLeod 25.6 32 -6.4
35 Anthony Alfredo 22.0 35 -13.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Ty Gibbs: has 9 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 12.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model correctly identified this strength.
  • Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 13 starts, 17.8 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?
Ty Gibbs won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 5, 2022.