NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway — October 21, 2023
Sam Mayer
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 21, 2023, leading 46 of 200 laps. Riley Herbst finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 21, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Sam Mayer |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Riley Herbst |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 4 | 4 | — | Austin Hill |
| 5 | 23 | +18 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Daniel Hemric |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Parker Kligerman |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Brandon Jones |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Sammy Smith |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Derek Kraus |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 13 | 1 | -12 | Cole Custer |
| 14 | 14 | — | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 3 | -12 | Justin Allgaier |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Josh Williams |
| 18 | 33 | +15 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 19 | 29 | +10 | Brennan Poole |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Jeb Burton |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | Kyle Sieg |
| 23 | 27 | +4 | Leland Honeyman Jr. |
| 24 | 37 | +13 | Ryan Ellis |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Patrick Emerling |
| 26 | 9 | -17 | Sheldon Creed |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Mason Massey |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Blaine Perkins |
| 30 | 19 | -11 | Kaz Grala |
| 31 | 21 | -10 | Connor Mosack |
| 32 | 8 | -24 | Josh Berry |
| 33 | 30 | -3 | Mason Maggio |
| 34 | 12 | -22 | Chandler Smith |
| 35 | 6 | -29 | Brett Moffitt |
| 36 | 32 | -4 | Dawson Cram |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 38 | 24 | -14 | Ryan Newman |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 2 | +19.4 |
| 3 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 3 | +16.1 |
| 4 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 4 | +16.9 |
| 11 | Derek Kraus | 26.1 | 11 | +15.1 |
| 13 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 13 | +9.9 |
| 15 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 15 | +3.3 |
| 19 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 19 | +5.7 |
| 28 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 28 | -7.1 |
| 32 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 32 | -9.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Sam Mayer: has 4 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 4.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Justin Allgaier: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P15 on the day.
- Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P21. Track history: 7 starts, 11.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami?
Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 21, 2023.