NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 15, 2023
Justin Allgaier
Winner
300
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 15, 2023, leading 110 of 300 laps. Daniel Hemric finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, September 15, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Daniel Hemric |
| 3 | 3 | — | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Chandler Smith |
| 6 | 7 | +1 | Ryan Sieg |
| 7 | 12 | +5 | Trevor Bayne |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Riley Herbst |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Sammy Smith |
| 10 | 31 | +21 | Kaz Grala |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Sheldon Creed |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Derek Kraus |
| 13 | 38 | +25 | Jeb Burton |
| 14 | 29 | +15 | Connor Mosack |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 16 | 36 | +20 | Brett Moffitt |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Rajah Caruth |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Ryan Ellis |
| 19 | 35 | +16 | Stefan Parsons |
| 20 | 20 | — | Josh Williams |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Kyle Sieg |
| 22 | 28 | +6 | Brennan Poole |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 24 | 9 | -15 | Jeremy Clements |
| 25 | 32 | +7 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 26 | 19 | -7 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Blaine Perkins |
| 29 | 23 | -6 | Chad Finchum |
| 30 | 15 | -15 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 31 | 13 | -18 | Parker Kligerman |
| 32 | 17 | -15 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 33 | 26 | -7 | Austin Hill |
| 34 | 8 | -26 | Brandon Jones |
| 35 | 11 | -24 | Sam Mayer |
| 36 | 2 | -34 | Josh Berry |
| 37 | 37 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 38 | 34 | -4 | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 3 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 3 | +17.1 |
| 4 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 4 | +19.0 |
| 8 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 8 | +14.1 |
| 12 | Derek Kraus | 21.3 | 12 | +9.3 |
| 22 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 22 | +1.1 |
| 25 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 25 | -3.0 |
| 27 | Josh Bilicki | 29.4 | 27 | +2.4 |
| 29 | Chad Finchum | 22.1 | 29 | -6.9 |
| 33 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 33 | -12.8 |
| 36 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 36 | -17.0 |
| 37 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 37 | -11.4 |
| 38 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 38 | -13.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 27 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 17 starts, 14.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol?
Justin Allgaier won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 15, 2023.