NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen
Watkins Glen International — August 19, 2023
Sam Mayer
Winner
86
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 19, 2023, leading 8 of 86 laps. Sheldon Creed finished second; Parker Kligerman rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Sam Mayer |
| 2 | 13 | +11 | Sheldon Creed |
| 3 | 14 | +11 | Parker Kligerman |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Ross Chastain |
| 5 | 19 | +14 | Connor Mosack |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Chandler Smith |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 25 | +15 | Jeb Burton |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 32 | +20 | Brennan Poole |
| 13 | 33 | +20 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Austin Hill |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Sage Karam |
| 16 | 3 | -13 | Justin Allgaier |
| 17 | 1 | -16 | Ty Gibbs |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Sammy Smith |
| 19 | 37 | +18 | Kyle Sieg |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Josh Berry |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Ryan Sieg |
| 22 | 36 | +14 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 23 | 6 | -17 | Daniel Hemric |
| 24 | 22 | -2 | Alex Labbe |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 27 | 8 | -19 | Kyle Busch |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Kaz Grala |
| 29 | 20 | -9 | Brett Moffitt |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Ryan Ellis |
| 31 | 27 | -4 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 32 | 38 | +6 | Stanton Barrett |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Stefan Parsons |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | Max McLaughlin |
| 35 | 10 | -25 | Riley Herbst |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Josh Williams |
| 37 | 16 | -21 | Jeremy Clements |
| 38 | 30 | -8 | Blaine Perkins |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ross Chastain | 16.2 | 4 | +12.2 |
| 6 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25.7 | 6 | +19.7 |
| 7 | Cole Custer | 25.7 | 7 | +18.7 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 16.7 | 9 | +7.7 |
| 12 | Brennan Poole | 21.4 | 12 | +9.4 |
| 14 | Austin Hill | 21.4 | 14 | +7.4 |
| 16 | Justin Allgaier | 16.8 | 16 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Ty Gibbs | 17.2 | 17 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Josh Berry | 28.4 | 20 | +8.4 |
| 25 | Josh Bilicki | 29.0 | 25 | +4.0 |
| 27 | Kyle Busch | 13.0 | 27 | -14.0 |
| 31 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 31 | -9.6 |
| 35 | Riley Herbst | 25.7 | 35 | -9.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Sam Mayer: has 7 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 8.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 31 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P27 on the day.
- John Hunter Nemechek: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P26. Track history: 4 starts, 12.5 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen?
Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen was held at Watkins Glen International on August 19, 2023.