NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 19, 2023

Sam Mayer
Winner
86
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders

Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 19, 2023, leading 8 of 86 laps. Sheldon Creed finished second; Parker Kligerman rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 5 +4 Sam Mayer
2 13 +11 Sheldon Creed
3 14 +11 Parker Kligerman
4 17 +13 Ross Chastain
5 19 +14 Connor Mosack
6 12 +6 John Hunter Nemechek
7 4 -3 Cole Custer
8 18 +10 Chandler Smith
9 2 -7 Alex Bowman
10 25 +15 Jeb Burton
11 24 +13 Brandon Jones
12 32 +20 Brennan Poole
13 33 +20 Kyle Weatherman
14 11 -3 Austin Hill
15 21 +6 Sage Karam
16 3 -13 Justin Allgaier
17 1 -16 Ty Gibbs
18 9 -9 Sammy Smith
19 37 +18 Kyle Sieg
20 7 -13 Josh Berry
21 26 +5 Ryan Sieg
22 36 +14 Joe Graf Jr.
23 6 -17 Daniel Hemric
24 22 -2 Alex Labbe
25 28 +3 Josh Bilicki
26 29 +3 Parker Retzlaff
27 8 -19 Kyle Busch
28 15 -13 Kaz Grala
29 20 -9 Brett Moffitt
30 35 +5 Ryan Ellis
31 27 -4 Anthony Alfredo
32 38 +6 Stanton Barrett
33 23 -10 Stefan Parsons
34 31 -3 Max McLaughlin
35 10 -25 Riley Herbst
36 34 -2 Josh Williams
37 16 -21 Jeremy Clements
38 30 -8 Blaine Perkins
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
4 Ross Chastain 16.2 4 +12.2
6 John Hunter Nemechek 25.7 6 +19.7
7 Cole Custer 25.7 7 +18.7
9 Alex Bowman 16.7 9 +7.7
12 Brennan Poole 21.4 12 +9.4
14 Austin Hill 21.4 14 +7.4
16 Justin Allgaier 16.8 16 +0.8
17 Ty Gibbs 17.2 17 +0.2
20 Josh Berry 28.4 20 +8.4
25 Josh Bilicki 29.0 25 +4.0
27 Kyle Busch 13.0 27 -14.0
31 Anthony Alfredo 21.4 31 -9.6
35 Riley Herbst 25.7 35 -9.3

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Sam Mayer: has 7 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 8.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 31 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P27 on the day.
  • John Hunter Nemechek: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P26. Track history: 4 starts, 12.5 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen?
Sam Mayer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen was held at Watkins Glen International on August 19, 2023.