NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 12, 2025
Aric Almirola
Winner
300
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 12, 2025, leading 34 of 300 laps. Sheldon Creed finished second; Sam Mayer rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, September 12, 2025
Track
Season
2025
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | Sheldon Creed |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Sam Mayer |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Carson Kvapil |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Connor Zilisch |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 7 | 7 | — | Harrison Burton |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Christian Eckes |
| 9 | 26 | +17 | Jeremy Clements |
| 10 | 18 | +8 | Brennan Poole |
| 11 | 22 | +11 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Dean Thompson |
| 13 | 20 | +7 | Nick Sanchez |
| 14 | 5 | -9 | Taylor Gray |
| 15 | 6 | -9 | William Sawalich |
| 16 | 15 | -1 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 17 | 17 | — | Corey Day |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Jeb Burton |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Austin Hill |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Brenden Queen |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Kyle Sieg |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 23 | 8 | -15 | Ryan Sieg |
| 24 | 25 | +1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 25 | 9 | -16 | Jesse Love |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Daniel Dye |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Josh Williams |
| 29 | 32 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | Logan Bearden |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Austin Green |
| 32 | 23 | -9 | Leland Honeyman Jr. |
| 33 | 35 | +2 | Carson Ware |
| 34 | 38 | +4 | Blaine Perkins |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 36 | 13 | -23 | Stefan Parsons |
| 37 | 14 | -23 | Sammy Smith |
| 38 | 29 | -9 | Ryan Ellis |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.4 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 5 | +16.2 |
| 6 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 6 | +11.7 |
| 10 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 10 | +13.1 |
| 19 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 19 | +1.2 |
| 22 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 22 | 0.0 |
| 25 | Jesse Love | 21.0 | 25 | -4.0 |
| 26 | Daniel Dye | 19.0 | 26 | -7.0 |
| 29 | Josh Bilicki | 29.4 | 29 | +0.4 |
| 35 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 35 | -13.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 31 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 20.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Justin Allgaier: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P6 on the day.
- Connor Zilisch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P21. Track history: 5 starts, 14.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol?
Aric Almirola won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol held?
The 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 12, 2025.