NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway, March 22, 2025
Justin Allgaier
Winner
201
Laps
38
Entries
11
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on March 22, 2025, leading 21 of 201 laps. Sam Mayer finished second; Austin Hill rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, March 22, 2025
Track
Season
2025
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Sam Mayer |
| 3 | 21 | +18 | Austin Hill |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Sheldon Creed |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | Jesse Love |
| 7 | 38 | +31 | Brandon Jones |
| 8 | 3 | -5 | Nick Sanchez |
| 9 | 30 | +21 | Daniel Dye |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Carson Kvapil |
| 11 | 12 | +1 | Harrison Burton |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Connor Zilisch |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Dean Thompson |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Brennan Poole |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Jeb Burton |
| 16 | 7 | -9 | Justin Bonsignore |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 19 | 11 | -8 | Josh Williams |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Ryan Ellis |
| 21 | 15 | -6 | Sammy Smith |
| 22 | 8 | -14 | Ryan Sieg |
| 23 | 1 | -22 | Taylor Gray |
| 24 | 13 | -11 | William Sawalich |
| 25 | 16 | -9 | Blaine Perkins |
| 26 | 22 | -4 | Jeremy Clements |
| 27 | 27 | — | Kyle Sieg |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Brad Perez |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 30 | 29 | -1 | Myatt Snider |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Kris Wright |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Patrick Emerling |
| 34 | 33 | -1 | Leland Honeyman Jr. |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Mason Maggio |
| 36 | 10 | -26 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 37 | 31 | -6 | Corey Heim |
| 38 | 5 | -33 | Christian Eckes |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 1 | +16.1 |
| 3 | Austin Hill | 26.4 | 3 | +23.4 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 4 | +9.1 |
| 6 | Jesse Love | 21.0 | 6 | +15.0 |
| 9 | Daniel Dye | 21.4 | 9 | +12.4 |
| 12 | Connor Zilisch | 26.1 | 12 | +14.1 |
| 14 | Brennan Poole | 23.4 | 14 | +9.4 |
| 18 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 18 | +3.4 |
| 29 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 29 | -6.1 |
| 37 | Corey Heim | 14.5 | 37 | -22.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 17 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Larson: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 9.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Austin Hill: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P26. Track history: 9 starts, 9.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami?
Justin Allgaier won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami held?
The 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on March 22, 2025.