NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix
Phoenix Raceway — March 8, 2025
Aric Almirola
Winner
208
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2025, leading 25 of 208 laps. Alex Bowman finished second; Brandon Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, March 8, 2025
Track
Season
2025
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Alex Bowman |
| 3 | 16 | +13 | Brandon Jones |
| 4 | 30 | +26 | Ryan Sieg |
| 5 | 14 | +9 | Justin Allgaier |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Taylor Gray |
| 7 | 13 | +6 | Sam Mayer |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Christian Eckes |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Jesse Love |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Nick Sanchez |
| 11 | 26 | +15 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Josh Williams |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | William Sawalich |
| 14 | 3 | -11 | Sammy Smith |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Jeb Burton |
| 16 | 4 | -12 | Connor Zilisch |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Brennan Poole |
| 18 | 32 | +14 | Kyle Sieg |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Daniel Dye |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Harrison Burton |
| 21 | 19 | -2 | Jeremy Clements |
| 22 | 34 | +12 | Mason Massey |
| 23 | 22 | -1 | Josh Bilicki |
| 24 | 18 | -6 | Blaine Perkins |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | Kris Wright |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Carson Kvapil |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Joey Gase |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 29 | -1 | Nick Leitz |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Greg Van Alst |
| 32 | 25 | -7 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 33 | 28 | -5 | Ryan Ellis |
| 34 | 27 | -7 | Thomas Annunziata |
| 35 | 35 | — | Dawson Cram |
| 36 | 2 | -34 | Sheldon Creed |
| 37 | 10 | -27 | Austin Hill |
| 38 | 12 | -26 | Dean Thompson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 2 | +12.0 |
| 5 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 5 | +12.7 |
| 9 | Jesse Love | 21.0 | 9 | +12.0 |
| 16 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 16 | +5.2 |
| 17 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 17 | +6.1 |
| 19 | Daniel Dye | 19.0 | 19 | 0.0 |
| 23 | Josh Bilicki | 29.4 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 28 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 28 | -6.0 |
| 32 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 32 | -10.0 |
| 37 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 37 | -16.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 24 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 13.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Alex Bowman: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P2 on the day.
- Justin Allgaier: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 15 starts, 10.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?
Aric Almirola won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.
Where was the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?
The 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2025.