The Progress Group 250
Talladega Superspeedway, October 24, 2026
Sammy Smith
Winner
94
Laps
11
Lead Changes
8
Leaders
Sammy Smith won the 2026 The Progress Group 250 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 24, 2026, leading 1 of 94 laps. Carson Kvapil finished second; Jesse Love rounded out the podium. The race had 11 lead changes among 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Track
Season
2026
Winner
Lead Changes
11
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | +10 | Sammy Smith |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Carson Kvapil |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Jesse Love |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Justin Allgaier |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Sheldon Creed |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Corey Day |
| 7 | 36 | +29 | Blaine Perkins |
| 8 | 27 | +19 | Dean Thompson |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Brandon Jones |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 11 | 32 | +21 | Jeb Burton |
| 12 | 24 | +12 | Mason Maggio |
| 13 | 3 | -10 | Sam Mayer |
| 14 | 25 | +11 | Ryan Sieg |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Nick Leitz |
| 16 | 35 | +19 | Josh Bilicki |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Rajah Caruth |
| 18 | 15 | -3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Connor Mosack |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Taylor Gray |
| 22 | 38 | +16 | Lee Pulliam |
| 23 | 22 | -1 | Josh Williams |
| 24 | 19 | -5 | Harrison Burton |
| 25 | 30 | +5 | Will Rodgers |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Brennan Poole |
| 27 | 37 | +10 | Garrett Smithley |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | Kyle Sieg |
| 29 | 9 | -20 | William Sawalich |
| 30 | 20 | -10 | Ryan Ellis |
| 31 | 26 | -5 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 32 | 21 | -11 | Patrick Staropoli |
| 33 | 33 | — | Daniel Dye |
| 34 | 8 | -26 | Brent Crews |
| 35 | 5 | -30 | Austin Hill |
| 36 | 31 | -5 | Leland Honeyman Jr. |
| 37 | 18 | -19 | Caesar Bacarella |
| 38 | 2 | -36 | Jake Finch |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Kvapil | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Justin Allgaier | 3 | 1 | — | 18 |
| Corey Day | 4 | 5 | — | 13 |
| Sheldon Creed | 5 | 6 | — | 11 |
| Rajah Caruth | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Sammy Smith | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Austin Hill | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Taylor Gray | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Harrison Burton | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Brent Crews | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Jake Finch | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Jeremy Clements | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| William Sawalich | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Jesse Love | — | — | — | — |
| Blaine Perkins | — | — | — | — |
| Dean Thompson | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Jeb Burton | — | — | — | — |
| Mason Maggio | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Mayer | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Sieg | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Leitz | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Connor Mosack | 6 | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Lee Pulliam | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Williams | — | — | — | — |
| Will Rodgers | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Sieg | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Ellis | — | — | — | — |
| Parker Retzlaff | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick Staropoli | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Dye | — | — | — | — |
| Leland Honeyman Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Caesar Bacarella | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jesse Love | 23.3 | 3 | +20.3 |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 21.1 | 4 | +17.1 |
| 10 | Anthony Alfredo | 23.4 | 10 | +13.4 |
| 16 | Josh Bilicki | 23.7 | 16 | +7.7 |
| 20 | Joey Gase | 24.0 | 20 | +4.0 |
| 24 | Harrison Burton | 23.7 | 24 | -0.3 |
| 26 | Brennan Poole | 24.0 | 26 | -2.0 |
| 33 | Daniel Dye | 23.4 | 33 | -9.6 |
| 35 | Austin Hill | 25.5 | 35 | -9.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Sammy Smith: has 8 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 12.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Justin Allgaier: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 20.1 avg finish, finishing P4 on the day.
- Jesse Love: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 7 starts, 8.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2026 The Progress Group 250?
Sammy Smith won the 2026 The Progress Group 250 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for JR Motorsports.
Where was the 2026 The Progress Group 250 held?
The 2026 The Progress Group 250 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 24, 2026.