Gander Outdoors 400
Dover Motor Speedway, October 7, 2018
Chase Elliott
Winner
404
Laps
39
Entries
8
Leaders
Chase Elliott won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on October 7, 2018, leading 11 of 404 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 7, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Chase Elliott |
| 2 | 15 | +13 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 16 | +12 | Erik Jones |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 8 | 1 | -7 | Kyle Busch |
| 9 | 21 | +12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 10 | 19 | +9 | Daniel Suarez |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 13 | 11 | -2 | Aric Almirola |
| 14 | 4 | -10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 15 | 3 | -12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Paul Menard |
| 17 | 17 | — | Ryan Newman |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Jamie McMurray |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | William Byron |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Matt Kenseth |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | Regan Smith |
| 22 | 24 | +2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Bubba Wallace |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | David Ragan |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | 12 | -16 | Alex Bowman |
| 29 | 30 | +1 | Ty Dillon |
| 30 | 33 | +3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 32 | 35 | +3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Landon Cassill |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 35 | 5 | -30 | Clint Bowyer |
| 36 | 13 | -23 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 37 | 32 | -5 | Ross Chastain |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 39 | 38 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 1 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 12.6 | 3 | +9.6 |
| 4 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 7 | Austin Dillon | 15.6 | 7 | +8.6 |
| 9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.2 | 9 | +11.2 |
| 10 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 10 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 11 | -4.2 |
| 12 | Kyle Larson | 9.9 | 12 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 14 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 19 | William Byron | 12.0 | 19 | -7.0 |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 22 | -3.7 |
| 23 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 23 | -9.0 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 25 | -14.7 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 14.7 | 26 | -11.3 |
| 28 | Alex Bowman | 15.0 | 28 | -13.0 |
| 29 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 29 | -4.7 |
| 30 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 30 | -5.1 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 29.4 | 32 | -2.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Elliott: has 13 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 9.6 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 13 starts, 14.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400?
Chase Elliott won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 held?
The 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 was held at Dover Motor Speedway on October 7, 2018.