Cup Series Preview Saturday, August 15, 2026

Cook Out 400

Richmond Raceway

Laps 400 Distance 300 mi Type short Coverage USA · 7:00 PM ET Stages 70 / 230 / 400

0.75

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, August 15, 2026

7:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 27 starts at Richmond Raceway with 3 wins and a 9.8 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 16 starts at Richmond Raceway with a 17.3 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 16 starts at Richmond Raceway with a 12.5 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Richmond Raceway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Bobby Allison finishes in the top 10 at Richmond Raceway 73% of the time across 37 starts.

Bobby Allison's track record

LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Richmond Raceway was the 2025 Cook Out 400 (chaos score: 79.0).

Track history

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Cook Out 400 on?

The Cook Out 400 airs on USA on Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, broadcast from Richmond Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The Cook Out 400 green flag is set for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 15, 2026, airing on USA. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	24	2	P6(2025)
2	Ryan Blaney		1648	18	0	P3(2025)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1623	26	3	P10(2025)
4	Christopher Bell		1594	10	0	P21(2025)
5	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1577	29	2	P4(2025)
6	Chase Elliott		1575	19	0	P38(2025)
7	William Byron		1550	11	0	P12(2025)
8	Ty Gibbs		1544	6	0	P18(2025)
9	Ross Chastain		1539	11	0	P19(2025)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1536	28	2	P9(2025)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Chase Elliott	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
6	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	9.9	11.5%	46.2%	67.5%
7	Chris Buescher	Contender	10.3	9.5%	42.9%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.3	8.2%	38.9%	62.3%
9	Ryan Preece	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.4%	60.8%
10	Brad Keselowski	Contender	12.0	5.5%	33.9%	58.6%
11	Joey Logano	Contender	12.1	4.9%	31.2%	56.4%
12	Ty Gibbs	Contender	12.6	4.3%	29.9%	54.7%
13	Chase Briscoe	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.2%	51.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Bubba Wallace	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
16	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.4%	17.8%	42.8%
18	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	16.7%	41.1%
19	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	15.2%	38.3%
20	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	13.3%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.2%	30.9%
22	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.8%	32.6%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.7%	9.1%	28.8%
24	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.6%	7.3%	23.8%
25	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.4%	6.4%	21.9%
27	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.3	0.2%	2.8%	14.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.4%	11.9%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.3%
34	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.5%	8.1%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.6%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.6%	8.4%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.3	0.1%	0.8%	6.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.6	0.0%	0.6%	4.3%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	29.8	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Richmond Raceway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (16 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2025	Cook Out 400	Austin Dillon	—	Richard Childress Racing	107
2024	Cook Out 400	Austin Dillon	—	Richard Childress Racing	35
2024	Toyota Owners 400	Denny Hamlin	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	17
2023	Cook Out 400	Chris Buescher	—	RFK Racing	88
2023	Toyota Owners 400	Kyle Larson	—	Hendrick Motorsports	93

All Results at This Track

2025 Dillon 2024 Dillon 2024 Hamlin 2023 Buescher 2023 Larson 2022 Harvick 2022 Hamlin 2021 Jr. 2021 Bowman 2020 Keselowski 2019 Jr. 2019 Jr. 2018 Busch 2018 Busch 2017 Larson 2017 Logano

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Martin Truex, Jr.	1346
Denny Hamlin	773
Brad Keselowski	628
Kyle Busch	512
Joey Logano	488

Track Type Tendencies

short

Richmond Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.