Toyota Owners 400
Richmond Raceway — April 2, 2023
Kyle Larson
Winner
400
Laps
36
Entries
11
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 2, 2023, leading 93 of 400 laps. Josh Berry finished second; Ross Chastain rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | +21 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | — | — | Josh Berry |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Christopher Bell |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 21 | +15 | Michael McDowell |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Alex Bowman |
| 9 | 15 | +6 | Ty Gibbs |
| 10 | 19 | +9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 12 | 25 | +13 | Chase Briscoe |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Aric Almirola |
| 14 | 1 | -13 | Kyle Busch |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Todd Gilliland |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Tyler Reddick |
| 17 | — | — | Chandler Smith |
| 18 | 29 | +11 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 14 | -5 | Harrison Burton |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Denny Hamlin |
| 21 | — | — | Aric Almirola |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | — | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 24 | 7 | -17 | William Byron |
| 25 | — | — | Erik Jones |
| 26 | — | — | Noah Gragson |
| 27 | — | — | Ty Dillon |
| 28 | — | — | Ryan Newman |
| 29 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 30 | — | — | Josh Berry |
| 31 | — | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 32 | — | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 33 | — | — | Michael McDowell |
| 34 | — | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 35 | — | — | Austin Dillon |
| 36 | — | — | Brennan Poole |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| William Byron | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 7 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 8 | — | 8 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 4 | 11 | — | 7 |
| Ross Chastain | 8 | 9 | — | 5 |
| Kyle Larson | 28 | 10 | — | 1 |
| Josh Berry | — | — | — | — |
| Chandler Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Berry | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 26 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 2 | +17.0 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 3 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 4 | +4.6 |
| 6 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 6 | +9.0 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 7 | +5.1 |
| 8 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 8 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 9 | +3.6 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| 11 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 11 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 12 | +0.6 |
| 14 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 15 | +2.1 |
| 16 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 16 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 18 | -7.2 |
| 20 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 20 | -13.2 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 22 | -8.0 |
| 23 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 23 | -4.7 |
| 24 | William Byron | 10.3 | 24 | -13.7 |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 25 | -7.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 18 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 13.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P20 on the day.
- Josh Berry: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 9 starts, 13.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 held?
The 2023 Toyota Owners 400 was held at Richmond Raceway on April 2, 2023.