Cup Series Preview Sunday, July 5, 2026

NASCAR Cup Series Race at Chicagoland

Chicagoland Speedway

Laps 267 Distance 400 mi Type intermediate Coverage TNT · 6:00 PM ET Stages 80 / 165 / 267

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Sunday, July 5, 2026

6:00 PM ET

Chicagoland Speedway returns to the NASCAR schedule after a pandemic-era hiatus, and the 1.5-mile tri-oval in Joliet, Illinois picks up right where it left off — as one of the most technical intermediate tracks the Cup Series visits. Opened in 2001, Chicagoland's worn, asphalt surface is notorious for aggressive tire fall-off, with lap times dropping nearly a full second from lap 1 to lap 30 of a fresh set. That degradation creates a multi-groove racing surface as drivers search for grip high and low, and it puts a premium on long-run patience rather than outright qualifying speed. Historically, Kyle Busch owned this place with three wins in a five-year stretch, and Tony Stewart's 2011 walk-off victory over Brian Vickers remains one of the most memorable finishes in Chicagoland history. The 267-lap race splits into three stages that force teams to decide when to pit, when to stretch, and when to sacrifice track position for fresh rubber. With Chicagoland's return to the 2026 schedule, Cup teams face a rare challenge: a track that rewards tire management on a surface nobody has seen in years, where the driver who reads the fall-off fastest wins the afternoon.

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Tyler Reddick has 5 starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 11.6 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 8 starts at Chicagoland Speedway with 1 win and a 8.8 average finish.
Denny Hamlin has 19 starts at Chicagoland Speedway with 1 win and a 14.4 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Chicagoland Speedway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Kevin Harvick has won 5 times at Chicagoland Speedway with a 10.9 average finish.

See Kevin Harvick's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

Brett Moffitt won the 2019 Camping World 225 at Chicagoland Speedway.

See Brett Moffitt's results

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR Cup Series Race at Chicagoland on?

The NASCAR Cup Series Race at Chicagoland airs on TNT on Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET, broadcast from Chicagoland Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start today?

The NASCAR Cup Series Race at Chicagoland green flag is set for 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, July 5, 2026, airing on TNT. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1624	8	1	P15(2019)
2	Chase Elliott		1617	4	0	P11(2019)
3	Tyler Reddick		1597	0	0	P0(0)
4	Chris Buescher		1591	2	0	P18(2019)
5	Chase Briscoe		1579	0	0	P0(0)
6	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1570	8	2	P5(2019)
7	William Byron		1561	2	0	P8(2019)
8	Ryan Preece		1544	0	0	P0(0)
9	Bubba Wallace		1543	1	0	P38(2018)
10	Christopher Bell		1539	0	0	P0(0)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Tyler Reddick Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Chase Elliott	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Denny Hamlin	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chris Buescher	Favorite	9.2	15.4%	54.1%	72.9%
5	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	9.2	12.7%	49.0%	69.0%
6	Ryan Preece	Favorite	10.1	10.9%	46.4%	67.2%
7	Christopher Bell	Contender	10.7	9.6%	43.6%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.7	8.4%	40.3%	62.2%
9	Brad Keselowski	Contender	11.2	7.6%	38.0%	60.3%
10	Chase Briscoe	Contender	11.9	6.4%	35.5%	58.5%
11	Kyle Larson	Contender	12.7	5.2%	32.4%	56.7%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.7	5.1%	30.9%	55.5%
13	Carson Hocevar	Contender	13.1	4.3%	28.1%	53.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.3	3.8%	25.9%	50.5%
15	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	13.5	3.3%	24.0%	49.5%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	21.8%	47.6%
17	Ty Gibbs	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.0%	20.3%	45.4%
18	Joey Logano	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.7%	18.8%	43.9%
19	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.9%	41.0%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	16.7	1.7%	13.5%	36.0%
21	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	16.9	1.4%	12.6%	34.6%
22	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
23	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.1%	10.9%	31.6%
24	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.3%	30.3%
25	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.5%	27.2%
26	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.5%	25.0%
27	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.7%	22.9%
28	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
29	Todd Gilliland	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.5%
31	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	22.9	0.2%	2.1%	10.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	11.2%
33	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.2%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	1.9%	11.2%
35	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.3%	12.7%
36	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.9%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.4	0.1%	1.5%	8.7%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.8	0.0%	0.9%	6.7%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	56.1	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Chicagoland Speedway

Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (8 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2019	Camping World 400	Alex Bowman	—	Hendrick Motorsports	88
2018	Overton's 400	Kyle Busch	—	Joe Gibbs Racing	59
2017	Tales of the Turtles 400	Martin Truex, Jr.	—	Furniture Row Racing	77
2016	NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHICAGO	Martin Truex, Jr.	—		32
2015	NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHICAGO	Denny Hamlin	—		9

All Results at This Track

2019 Bowman 2018 Busch 2017 Jr. 2016 Jr. 2015 Hamlin 2014 Keselowski 2013 Kenseth 2012 Keselowski

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Kyle Busch	399
Jimmie Johnson	340
Brad Keselowski	164
Martin Truex, Jr.	148
Chase Elliott	117

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Chicagoland Speedway reward the complete package — car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.