NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago
Chicagoland Speedway — September 16, 2012
Brad Keselowski
Winner
267
Laps
43
Entries
9
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2012, leading 76 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Track
Season
2012
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Kasey Kahne |
| 4 | 21 | +17 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 20 | +15 | Ryan Newman |
| 6 | 29 | +23 | Tony Stewart |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 9 | 18 | +9 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Clint Bowyer |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 12 | 35 | +23 | Kevin Harvick |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Greg Biffle |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Mark Martin |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Paul Menard |
| 16 | 8 | -8 | Denny Hamlin |
| 17 | 2 | -15 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | Matt Kenseth |
| 19 | 5 | -14 | Carl Edwards |
| 20 | 14 | -6 | Trevor Bayne |
| 21 | 12 | -9 | Jamie McMurray |
| 22 | 37 | +15 | David Ragan |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Juan Pablo Montoya |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Jeff Burton |
| 25 | 41 | +16 | Danica Patrick |
| 26 | 23 | -3 | Bobby Labonte |
| 27 | 17 | -10 | Marcos Ambrose |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | David Gilliland |
| 29 | 26 | -3 | Landon Cassill |
| 30 | 39 | +9 | T.J. Bell |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Travis Kvapil |
| 32 | 30 | -2 | Kurt Busch |
| 33 | 42 | +9 | Dave Blaney |
| 34 | 7 | -27 | Regan Smith |
| 35 | 19 | -16 | Jeff Gordon |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Casey Mears |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Cole Whitt |
| 38 | 43 | +5 | Josh Wise |
| 39 | 31 | -8 | David Stremme |
| 40 | 33 | -7 | Joe Nemechek |
| 41 | 25 | -16 | Scott Speed |
| 42 | 34 | -8 | Mike Bliss |
| 43 | 24 | -19 | Michael McDowell |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 1 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 2 | +17.9 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 4 | +13.0 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 7 | +7.7 |
| 9 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 9 | +6.4 |
| 16 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 16 | -7.8 |
| 36 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 36 | -19.1 |
| 43 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 43 | -26.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 16 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 8.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P16 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 20 starts, 9.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago?
Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway.
Where was the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago held?
The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago was held at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2012.