UAW-Ford 500

Talladega Superspeedway — October 2, 2005

Dale Jarrett

Winner

190

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Jarrett won the 2005 UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 2, 2005, leading 2 of 190 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 20 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 2, 2005

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2005

Winner

Dale Jarrett

Leaders

20 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Dale Jarrett		190	—	Running	2	185
2	4	+2	Tony Stewart		190	—	Running	65	180
3	11	+8	Matt Kenseth		190	—	Running	23	170
4	3	-1	Ryan Newman	Dodge	190	—	Running	12	165
5	10	+5	Carl Edwards		190	—	Running	2	160
6	27	+21	Brian Vickers		190	—	Running	6	155
7	16	+9	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	146
8	21	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	190	—	Running	7	147
9	5	-4	Joe Nemechek		190	—	Running	1	143
10	42	+32	Kevin Harvick		190	—	Running	6	139
11	6	-5	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	130
12	14	+2	Jamie McMurray	Dodge	190	—	Running	38	132
13	28	+15	Kasey Kahne		190	—	Running	—	124
14	32	+18	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	190	—	Running	1	126
15	30	+15	Dave Blaney	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	118
16	15	-1	Travis Kvapil		190	—	Running	1	120
17	36	+19	Scott Wimmer		190	—	Running	—	112
18	29	+11	Ricky Rudd		190	—	Running	5	114
19	33	+14	Mike Wallace		190	—	Running	1	111
20	31	+11	Bobby Hamilton Jr.		190	—	Running	—	103
21	40	+19	Jeff Green		189	—	Running	1	105
22	43	+21	Tony Raines	Dodge	189	—	Running	—	97
23	22	-1	Robby Gordon		189	—	Running	—	94
24	38	+14	Kyle Petty	Dodge	189	—	Running	—	91
25	41	+16	Rusty Wallace	Dodge	185	—	Running	—	88
26	39	+13	Ken Schrader		183	—	Running	1	90
27	8	-19	Greg Biffle		172	—	Running	—	82
28	17	-11	Martin Truex, Jr.		170	—	Running	—	79
29	19	-10	J.J. Yeley		165	—	Running	1	81
30	37	+7	Kevin Lepage		160	—	DNF	—	73
31	9	-22	Jimmie Johnson		158	—	DNF	3	75
32	23	-9	Mike Bliss		149	—	DNF	—	67
33	13	-20	Kyle Busch		146	—	DNF	—	64
34	1	-33	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	128	—	DNF	9	66
35	18	-17	Jeff Burton		71	—	DNF	—	58
36	7	-29	Scott Riggs		65	—	DNF	—	55
37	12	-25	Jeff Gordon		65	—	DNF	—	52
38	26	-12	Casey Mears	Dodge	65	—	DNF	5	54
39	34	-5	Kerry Earnhardt		57	—	DNF	—	46
40	20	-20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		19	—	DNF	—	43
41	24	-17	Mark Martin		19	—	DNF	—	40
42	25	-17	Michael Waltrip		19	—	DNF	—	37
43	35	-8	Mike Skinner		19	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 5 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	28	-7.9	Coinflip
29	J.J. Yeley	25.2	29	-3.8	High Confidence
31	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	31	-12.1	Coinflip
33	Kyle Busch	15.1	33	-17.9	Coinflip
38	Casey Mears	18.5	38	-19.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Jarrett: has 45 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P33 on the day.

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