CARFAX 400 at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 15, 2010

Kevin Harvick

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2010 CARFAX 400 at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 15, 2010, leading 60 of 200 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	8	+7	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	60	190
2	33	+31	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	12	175
3	24	+21	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	—	165
4	6	+2	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	66	170
5	7	+2	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	—	155
6	4	-2	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	36	155
7	5	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	—	146
8	9	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	5	147
9	23	+14	Elliott Sadler		200	—	Running	4	143
10	27	+17	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	134
11	29	+18	David Ragan		200	—	Running	2	135
12	2	-10	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	14	132
13	3	-10	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	124
14	1	-13	Kasey Kahne		200	—	Running	—	121
15	37	+22	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	—	118
16	14	-2	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	115
17	16	-1	A.J. Allmendinger		200	—	Running	—	112
18	18	—	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	109
19	38	+19	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	106
20	19	-1	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	103
21	20	-1	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	—	100
22	30	+8	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	—	97
23	17	-6	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	—	94
24	11	-13	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	91
25	31	+6	Scott Speed		200	—	Running	—	88
26	34	+8	Reed Sorenson		200	—	Running	—	85
27	36	+9	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	82
28	12	-16	Mark Martin		199	—	Running	—	79
29	25	-4	Patrick Carpentier		199	—	Running	—	76
30	32	+2	Travis Kvapil		199	—	Running	1	78
31	39	+8	Tony Raines		199	—	Running	—	70
32	28	-4	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	Bobby Labonte		198	—	Running	—	64
34	26	-8	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	61
35	10	-25	Paul Menard		197	—	Running	—	58
36	42	+6	David Gilliland		195	—	Running	—	55
37	41	+4	P.J. Jones		64	—	DNF	—	52
38	15	-23	Landon Cassill		54	—	DNF	—	49
39	35	-4	Robby Gordon		34	—	DNF	—	46
40	13	-27	Kurt Busch	Dodge	30	—	DNF	—	43
41	21	-20	Max Papis		27	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	Michael McDowell		20	—	DNF	—	37
43	22	-21	Joe Nemechek		14	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	8	+7.4	Coinflip
10	Joey Logano	14.7	10	+4.7	Coinflip
12	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	12	+7.9	Moderate
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
18	Kyle Busch	17.0	18	-1.0	Coinflip
34	Brad Keselowski	11.2	34	-22.8	Moderate
42	Michael McDowell	17.0	42	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 59 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.0 avg finish (8 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

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