NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — March 28, 2010

Denny Hamlin

Winner

508

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on March 28, 2010, leading 172 of 508 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Denny Hamlin		508	—	Running	172	195
2	17	+15	Joey Logano		508	—	Running	—	170
3	11	+8	Jeff Gordon		508	—	Running	92	170
4	26	+22	Ryan Newman		508	—	Running	—	160
5	20	+15	Martin Truex, Jr.		508	—	Running	—	155
6	14	+8	Brian Vickers		508	—	Running	—	150
7	12	+5	Clint Bowyer		508	—	Running	—	146
8	13	+5	Carl Edwards		508	—	Running	—	142
9	3	-6	Jimmie Johnson		508	—	Running	—	138
10	4	-6	Greg Biffle		508	—	Running	—	134
11	31	+20	Marcos Ambrose		508	—	Running	—	130
12	30	+18	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	508	—	Running	—	127
13	33	+20	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	508	—	Running	—	124
14	9	-5	Paul Menard		508	—	Running	—	121
15	8	-7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		508	—	Running	—	118
16	27	+11	David Ragan		508	—	Running	—	115
17	23	+6	Kasey Kahne		508	—	Running	—	112
18	2	-16	Matt Kenseth		508	—	Running	—	109
19	35	+16	David Gilliland		508	—	Running	1	111
20	7	-13	Jeff Burton		508	—	Running	140	108
21	16	-5	Mark Martin		507	—	Running	25	105
22	10	-12	Kyle Busch		507	—	Running	—	97
23	6	-17	Kurt Busch	Dodge	506	—	Running	19	99
24	25	+1	Elliott Sadler		506	—	Running	—	91
25	39	+14	Mike Bliss		506	—	Running	—	88
26	5	-21	Tony Stewart		506	—	Running	—	85
27	34	+7	Travis Kvapil		506	—	Running	2	87
28	24	-4	David Reutimann		503	—	Running	—	79
29	29	—	Bobby Labonte		499	—	Running	—	76
30	15	-15	Jamie McMurray		498	—	Running	—	73
31	32	+1	Kevin Conway		498	—	Running	—	70
32	28	-4	Regan Smith		496	—	Running	—	67
33	18	-15	Scott Speed		491	—	Running	—	64
34	38	+4	Robby Gordon		480	—	Running	—	61
35	1	-34	Kevin Harvick		408	—	DNF	57	63
36	22	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya		400	—	DNF	—	55
37	36	-1	David Stremme		307	—	DNF	—	52
38	21	-17	A.J. Allmendinger		173	—	DNF	—	49
39	43	+4	Joe Nemechek		67	—	DNF	—	46
40	40	—	Max Papis		52	—	DNF	—	43
41	37	-4	Aric Almirola		43	—	DNF	—	40
42	42	—	Dave Blaney		24	—	DNF	—	37
43	41	-2	Michael McDowell		19	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	6.8	1	+5.8	High Confidence
2	Joey Logano	12.1	2	+10.1	Coinflip
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	5	+8.8	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	9	+8.7	Moderate
12	Brad Keselowski	12.0	12	0.0	Coinflip
22	Kyle Busch	15.6	22	-6.4	Coinflip
38	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	38	-19.7	Moderate
43	Michael McDowell	15.0	43	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P12. Track history: 37 starts, 10.5 avg finish.

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