NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — May 4, 2014

Denny Hamlin

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on May 4, 2014, leading 12 of 188 laps. Greg Biffle finished second; Clint Bowyer rounded out the podium. The race featured 23 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2014

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

23 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	34	+33	Denny Hamlin	188	—	Running	12	47
2	35	+33	Greg Biffle	188	—	Running	58	44
3	27	+24	Clint Bowyer	188	—	Running	—	41
4	18	+14	Brian Vickers	188	—	Running	6	41
5	3	-2	A.J. Allmendinger	188	—	Running	—	39
6	2	-4	Paul Menard	188	—	Running	10	39
7	8	+1	Kevin Harvick	188	—	Running	15	38
8	42	+34	Kasey Kahne	188	—	Running	—	36
9	29	+20	Kyle Larson	188	—	Running	—	35
10	25	+15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	188	—	Running	—	34
11	41	+30	Landon Cassill	188	—	Running	1	0
12	19	+7	Kyle Busch	188	—	Running	1	33
13	15	+2	Aric Almirola	188	—	Running	—	31
14	4	-10	Casey Mears	188	—	Running	3	31
15	5	-10	Austin Dillon	188	—	Running	—	29
16	17	+1	Michael Annett	188	—	Running	—	28
17	43	+26	Martin Truex, Jr.	188	—	Running	—	27
18	6	-12	Ryan Newman	188	—	Running	1	27
19	26	+7	Marcos Ambrose	188	—	Running	3	26
20	36	+16	Josh Wise	188	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	Cole Whitt	188	—	Running	—	23
22	7	-15	Danica Patrick	188	—	Running	6	23
23	20	-3	Jimmie Johnson	188	—	Running	2	22
24	37	+13	Terry Labonte	188	—	Running	—	20
25	28	+3	Michael Waltrip	188	—	Running	—	19
26	30	+4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	188	—	Running	26	19
27	38	+11	Justin Allgaier	188	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	Alex Bowman	187	—	Running	—	16
29	32	+3	Jamie McMurray	187	—	Running	—	15
30	10	-20	Carl Edwards	182	—	Running	6	15
31	24	-7	Ryan Truex	182	—	Running	—	13
32	16	-16	Joey Logano	174	—	Running	25	13
33	9	-24	Kurt Busch	174	—	Running	—	11
34	22	-12	Reed Sorenson	174	—	Running	1	11
35	39	+4	David Ragan	174	—	Running	1	10
36	14	-22	Michael McDowell	174	—	Running	1	9
37	21	-16	Matt Kenseth	171	—	Running	1	8
38	13	-25	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	1	7
39	11	-28	Jeff Gordon	156	—	DNF	1	6
40	40	—	David Gilliland	150	—	DNF	1	5
41	23	-18	Trevor Bayne	136	—	DNF	6	0
42	1	-41	Brian Scott	136	—	DNF	—	0
43	12	-31	Tony Stewart	136	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	16.0	1	+15.0	Coinflip
5	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	5	+15.1	Moderate
9	Kyle Larson	18.5	9	+9.5	Coinflip
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	10	+8.5	Coinflip
12	Kyle Busch	15.1	12	+3.1	Coinflip
14	Casey Mears	18.5	14	+4.5	Coinflip
15	Austin Dillon	23.4	15	+8.4	High Confidence
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	17	+3.1	Coinflip
23	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	23	-4.1	Coinflip
27	Justin Allgaier	21.1	27	-5.9	Moderate
28	Alex Bowman	15.1	28	-12.9	Coinflip
31	Ryan Truex	20.5	31	-10.5	Moderate
32	Joey Logano	20.5	32	-11.5	Moderate
36	Michael McDowell	20.0	36	-16.0	Coinflip
38	Brad Keselowski	16.0	38	-22.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P20. Track history: 32 starts, 19.8 avg finish.

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