NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — April 18, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 18, 2015, leading 300 of 300 laps. Daniel Suarez finished second; Chris Buescher rounded out the podium.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

1 driver

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Joey Logano		300	—	Running	300	0
2	9	+7	Daniel Suarez		300	—	Running	—	42
3	14	+11	Chris Buescher		300	—	Running	—	41
4	1	-3	Erik Jones		300	—	Running	—	0
5	16	+11	Ty Dillon		300	—	Running	—	39
6	13	+7	Chase Elliott		300	—	Running	—	38
7	6	-1	Kevin Harvick		300	—	Running	—	0
8	4	-4	Brian Scott		300	—	Running	—	36
9	8	-1	Brendan Gaughan		300	—	Running	—	35
10	12	+2	Elliott Sadler		300	—	Running	—	34
11	17	+6	Brennan Poole		300	—	Running	—	33
12	7	-5	Bubba Wallace		300	—	Running	—	32
13	21	+8	Jeremy Clements		299	—	Running	—	31
14	11	-3	John Wes Townley		297	—	Running	—	0
15	20	+5	Jeffrey Earnhardt		297	—	Running	—	29
16	3	-13	Austin Dillon		297	—	Running	—	0
17	23	+6	Ryan Sieg		296	—	Running	—	27
18	29	+11	David Starr		296	—	Running	—	26
19	33	+14	Cale Conley		296	—	Running	—	25
20	25	+5	Mike Bliss		295	—	Running	—	24
21	24	+3	Ryan Reed		294	—	Running	—	23
22	32	+10	Blake Koch		294	—	Running	—	22
23	22	-1	Dakoda Armstrong		294	—	Running	—	21
24	28	+4	Todd Bodine		293	—	Running	—	20
25	27	+2	Joey Gase		293	—	Running	—	19
26	26	—	Eric McClure		291	—	Running	—	18
27	18	-9	Ross Chastain		273	—	Running	—	17
28	19	-9	Landon Cassill		268	—	Running	—	16
29	31	+2	Harrison Rhodes		260	—	Running	—	15
30	10	-20	Regan Smith		252	—	DNF	—	14
31	5	-26	Denny Hamlin		229	—	DNF	—	0
32	35	+3	Peyton Sellers		227	—	DNF	—	12
33	15	-18	J.J. Yeley		206	—	DNF	—	11
34	37	+3	Timmy Hill	Dodge	198	—	DNF	—	0
35	39	+4	Mike Harmon	Dodge	106	—	DNF	—	9
36	38	+2	Carlos Contreras		60	—	DNF	—	8
37	36	-1	Derrike Cope		55	—	DNF	—	7
38	30	-8	Morgan Shepherd		41	—	DNF	—	6
39	34	-5	Jeff Green		28	—	DNF	—	5
40	40	—	Derek White		11	—	DNF	—	4

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	12.1	1	+11.1	Coinflip
2	Daniel Suarez	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
3	Chris Buescher	10.3	3	+7.3	Moderate
4	Erik Jones	17.7	4	+13.7	Coinflip
5	Ty Dillon	24.3	5	+19.3	High Confidence
6	Chase Elliott	8.3	6	+2.3	High Confidence
11	Brennan Poole	23.1	11	+12.1	High Confidence
12	Bubba Wallace	14.0	12	+2.0	Coinflip
16	Austin Dillon	17.0	16	+1.0	Coinflip
18	David Starr	20.2	18	+2.2	Moderate
25	Joey Gase	22.0	25	-3.0	High Confidence
27	Ross Chastain	13.8	27	-13.2	Coinflip
31	Denny Hamlin	6.8	31	-24.2	High Confidence
33	J.J. Yeley	28.1	33	-4.9	High Confidence
34	Timmy Hill	24.3	34	-9.7	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 44 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P31 on the day.
Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P24. Track history: 29 starts, 17.0 avg finish.

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Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL?

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL held?

The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 18, 2015.