NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO

Chicagoland Speedway — September 19, 2015

Kyle Busch

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO at Chicagoland Speedway on September 19, 2015, leading 102 of 200 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Bubba Wallace rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	102	0
2	2	—	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	84	0
3	12	+9	Bubba Wallace		200	—	Running	3	42
4	7	+3	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	0
5	4	-1	Ty Dillon		200	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Daniel Suarez		200	—	Running	2	39
7	8	+1	Chris Buescher		200	—	Running	—	37
8	19	+11	Elliott Sadler		200	—	Running	—	36
9	9	—	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	—	35
10	11	+1	Brendan Gaughan		200	—	Running	—	34
11	10	-1	Ryan Reed		200	—	Running	—	33
12	14	+2	Kasey Kahne		200	—	Running	—	0
13	16	+3	John Wes Townley		199	—	Running	1	0
14	17	+3	Chase Elliott		199	—	Running	—	30
15	18	+3	Dakoda Armstrong		199	—	Running	—	29
16	25	+9	Ross Chastain		199	—	Running	1	29
17	13	-4	Brian Scott		199	—	Running	7	28
18	26	+8	Ryan Sieg		199	—	Running	—	26
19	22	+3	J.J. Yeley		199	—	Running	—	25
20	15	-5	Jeremy Clements		199	—	Running	—	24
21	23	+2	Blake Koch		199	—	Running	—	23
22	6	-16	Kyle Larson		199	—	Running	—	0
23	30	+7	David Starr		196	—	Running	—	21
24	32	+8	Mason Mingus		195	—	Running	—	0
25	27	+2	Michael Self		194	—	Running	—	19
26	31	+5	Jimmy Weller III		194	—	Running	—	18
27	34	+7	Eric McClure		193	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	Joey Gase		193	—	Running	—	16
29	37	+8	Martin Roy		190	—	Running	—	15
30	39	+9	Josh Reaume	Dodge	182	—	Running	—	14
31	35	+4	Derrike Cope		174	—	Running	—	13
32	21	-11	Landon Cassill		142	—	DNF	—	12
33	20	-13	Cale Conley		140	—	DNF	—	11
34	38	+4	Mike Harmon	Dodge	129	—	DNF	—	10
35	5	-30	Ryan Blaney		108	—	DNF	—	9
36	24	-12	Benny Gordon		105	—	DNF	—	8
37	40	+3	Derek White		14	—	DNF	—	7
38	36	-2	T.J. Bell		13	—	DNF	—	0
39	28	-11	Dexter Bean		6	—	DNF	—	5
40	29	-11	Jeff Green		3	—	DNF	—	4

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	17.0	1	+16.0	Coinflip
3	Bubba Wallace	12.7	3	+9.7	Coinflip
5	Ty Dillon	23.4	5	+18.4	High Confidence
6	Daniel Suarez	14.0	6	+8.0	Coinflip
7	Chris Buescher	9.2	7	+2.2	High Confidence
14	Chase Elliott	7.8	14	-6.2	High Confidence
16	Ross Chastain	13.3	16	-2.7	Coinflip
19	J.J. Yeley	28.8	19	+9.8	High Confidence
22	Kyle Larson	12.7	22	-9.3	Coinflip
23	David Starr	20.9	23	-2.1	Moderate
28	Joey Gase	23.4	28	-4.6	High Confidence
35	Ryan Blaney	9.2	35	-25.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 32 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 8.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P14 on the day.
Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P23. Track history: 9 starts, 11.2 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO?

Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO at Chicagoland Speedway.

Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO held?

The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHICAGO was held at Chicagoland Speedway on September 19, 2015.