NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA
Daytona International Speedway — July 1, 2016
Aric Almirola
Winner
103
Laps
40
Entries
12
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway on July 1, 2016, leading 2 of 103 laps. Justin Allgaier finished second; Ryan Sieg rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, July 1, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
12 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | +22 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 3 | 30 | +27 | Ryan Sieg |
| 4 | 4 | — | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 17 | +12 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Ryan Reed |
| 7 | 18 | +11 | Jeff Green |
| 8 | 27 | +19 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 9 | 15 | +6 | Chase Elliott |
| 10 | 3 | -7 | Erik Jones |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Ross Chastain |
| 12 | 26 | +14 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 13 | 39 | +26 | Garrett Smithley |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Ty Dillon |
| 15 | 37 | +22 | Ryan Ellis |
| 16 | 32 | +16 | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Elliott Sadler |
| 19 | 34 | +15 | Joey Gase |
| 20 | 6 | -14 | Bubba Wallace |
| 21 | 1 | -20 | David Ragan |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Blake Koch |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | Benny Gordon |
| 24 | 31 | +7 | Bobby Gerhart |
| 25 | 35 | +10 | Scott Lagasse Jr. |
| 26 | 8 | -18 | Brennan Poole |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | David Starr |
| 28 | 2 | -26 | Austin Dillon |
| 29 | 13 | -16 | Brandon Jones |
| 30 | 10 | -20 | Corey LaJoie |
| 31 | 20 | -11 | Mark Thompson |
| 32 | 5 | -27 | Daniel Suarez |
| 33 | 22 | -11 | Mario Gosselin |
| 34 | 28 | -6 | Ryan Preece |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 36 | 25 | -11 | Joe Nemechek |
| 37 | 21 | -16 | Justin Marks |
| 38 | 38 | — | Alex Guenette |
| 39 | 36 | -3 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 40 | 40 | — | B.J. McLeod |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Justin Allgaier | 21.1 | 2 | +19.1 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 4 | +16.5 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Erik Jones | 18.5 | 10 | +8.5 |
| 11 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 11 | +6.4 |
| 14 | Ty Dillon | 21.1 | 14 | +7.1 |
| 17 | J.J. Yeley | 25.2 | 17 | +8.2 |
| 19 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 19 | +4.7 |
| 20 | Bubba Wallace | 16.0 | 20 | -4.0 |
| 26 | Brennan Poole | 25.2 | 26 | -0.8 |
| 27 | David Starr | 21.1 | 27 | -5.9 |
| 28 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 28 | -4.6 |
| 30 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 30 | -6.7 |
| 32 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 32 | -16.9 |
| 34 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 34 | -12.9 |
| 40 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 40 | -14.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 35 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 19.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
- Justin Allgaier: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P21. Track history: 32 starts, 16.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA?
Aric Almirola won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA was held at Daytona International Speedway on July 1, 2016.