NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA
Iowa Speedway — July 30, 2016
Erik Jones
Winner
250
Laps
40
Entries
4
Leaders
Erik Jones won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway on July 30, 2016, leading 154 of 250 laps. Ty Dillon finished second; Elliott Sadler rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Erik Jones |
| 2 | 15 | +13 | Ty Dillon |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Elliott Sadler |
| 4 | 25 | +21 | Brennan Poole |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 6 | 7 | +1 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Josh Berry |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Ryan Reed |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Drew Herring |
| 13 | 13 | — | Blake Koch |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Ryan Sieg |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Brandon Jones |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Jeremy Clements |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | Ross Chastain |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Justin Marks |
| 20 | 22 | +2 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | David Starr |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Garrett Smithley |
| 23 | 32 | +9 | B.J. McLeod |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 25 | 34 | +9 | Mario Gosselin |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Michael Lira |
| 27 | 10 | -17 | Bubba Wallace |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Mike Harmon |
| 29 | 40 | +11 | Spencer Boyd |
| 30 | 1 | -29 | Daniel Suarez |
| 31 | 27 | -4 | Jeff Green |
| 32 | 18 | -14 | Brandon McReynolds |
| 33 | 35 | +2 | Derrike Cope |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Ryan Preece |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Matt Waltz |
| 36 | 36 | — | Morgan Shepherd |
| 37 | 29 | -8 | Timmy Hill |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | T.J. Bell |
| 39 | 24 | -15 | Mike Bliss |
| 40 | 39 | -1 | John Jackson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 1 | +15.7 |
| 2 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 2 | +21.4 |
| 4 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 4 | +20.7 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 7 | +11.3 |
| 8 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 8 | +3.2 |
| 9 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 9 | +13.9 |
| 14 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 14 | +14.8 |
| 18 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 18 | -4.7 |
| 21 | David Starr | 20.9 | 21 | -0.1 |
| 23 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 23 | +1.8 |
| 24 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 24 | -0.6 |
| 27 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 27 | -14.3 |
| 30 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 30 | -16.0 |
| 34 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 34 | -23.9 |
| 37 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 37 | -13.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Erik Jones: has 9 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 7.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 4 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (1 win), finishing P34 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 11 starts, 8.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA?
Erik Jones won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA was held at Iowa Speedway on July 30, 2016.