NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN
Michigan International Speedway — June 17, 2017
Denny Hamlin
Winner
125
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2017, leading 34 of 125 laps. William Byron finished second; Elliott Sadler rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 17, 2017
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | William Byron |
| 3 | 3 | — | Elliott Sadler |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Ty Dillon |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Paul Menard |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Ryan Reed |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | Brandon Jones |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 11 | 15 | +4 | Brennan Poole |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Daniel Hemric |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Tyler Reddick |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Ryan Sieg |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Blake Koch |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | Spencer Gallagher |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 28 | +8 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 21 | 38 | +17 | David Starr |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Harrison Rhodes |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | Jeremy Clements |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Dylan Lupton |
| 25 | 35 | +10 | Joey Gase |
| 26 | 14 | -12 | Matt Tifft |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Josh Bilicki |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 29 | 26 | -3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 29 | -1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Korbin Forrister |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Mike Harmon |
| 33 | 31 | -2 | Brandon Brown |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Josh Williams |
| 35 | 25 | -10 | Jeff Green |
| 36 | 12 | -24 | Ben Kennedy |
| 37 | 9 | -28 | Michael Annett |
| 38 | 21 | -17 | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 39 | — | Timmy Hill |
| 40 | 37 | -3 | Morgan Shepherd |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 1 | +7.2 |
| 2 | William Byron | 10.7 | 2 | +8.7 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 4 | +7.2 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 5 | +12.0 |
| 6 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 6 | +17.4 |
| 10 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 10 | +12.9 |
| 11 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 11 | +13.7 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 13 | -6.8 |
| 16 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 16 | +2.3 |
| 19 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 19 | -5.7 |
| 21 | David Starr | 20.9 | 21 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 25 | -1.6 |
| 27 | Josh Bilicki | 28.6 | 27 | +1.6 |
| 30 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 30 | -5.2 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
| 39 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 39 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 12 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 18 starts, 17.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Denny Hamlin won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2017.