NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN

Michigan International Speedway — June 17, 2017

Denny Hamlin
Winner
125
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2017, leading 34 of 125 laps. William Byron finished second; Elliott Sadler rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 17, 2017
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 5 +4 Denny Hamlin
2 4 +2 William Byron
3 3 Elliott Sadler
4 2 -2 Brad Keselowski
5 1 -4 Kyle Busch
6 17 +11 Ty Dillon
7 10 +3 Paul Menard
8 20 +12 Ryan Reed
9 11 +2 Brandon Jones
10 7 -3 Cole Custer
11 15 +4 Brennan Poole
12 16 +4 Daniel Hemric
13 6 -7 Tyler Reddick
14 23 +9 Brendan Gaughan
15 18 +3 Ryan Sieg
16 22 +6 Justin Allgaier
17 13 -4 Blake Koch
18 8 -10 Spencer Gallagher
19 24 +5 Ross Chastain
20 28 +8 Dakoda Armstrong
21 38 +17 David Starr
22 27 +5 Harrison Rhodes
23 19 -4 Jeremy Clements
24 30 +6 Dylan Lupton
25 35 +10 Joey Gase
26 14 -12 Matt Tifft
27 32 +5 Josh Bilicki
28 34 +6 Tommy Joe Martins
29 26 -3 Garrett Smithley
30 29 -1 B.J. McLeod
31 33 +2 Korbin Forrister
32 40 +8 Mike Harmon
33 31 -2 Brandon Brown
34 36 +2 Josh Williams
35 25 -10 Jeff Green
36 12 -24 Ben Kennedy
37 9 -28 Michael Annett
38 21 -17 J.J. Yeley
39 39 Timmy Hill
40 37 -3 Morgan Shepherd
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 8.2 1 +7.2
2 William Byron 10.7 2 +8.7
4 Brad Keselowski 11.2 4 +7.2
5 Kyle Busch 17.0 5 +12.0
6 Ty Dillon 23.4 6 +17.4
10 Cole Custer 22.9 10 +12.9
11 Brennan Poole 24.7 11 +13.7
13 Tyler Reddick 6.2 13 -6.8
16 Justin Allgaier 18.3 16 +2.3
19 Ross Chastain 13.3 19 -5.7
21 David Starr 20.9 21 -0.1
25 Joey Gase 23.4 25 -1.6
27 Josh Bilicki 28.6 27 +1.6
30 B.J. McLeod 24.8 30 -5.2
38 J.J. Yeley 28.8 38 -9.2
39 Timmy Hill 23.9 39 -15.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 12 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
  • Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 18 starts, 17.9 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Denny Hamlin won the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2017 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2017.