M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store
Iowa Speedway — June 16, 2018
Brett Moffitt
Winner
200
Laps
32
Entries
7
Leaders
Brett Moffitt won the 2018 M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store at Iowa Speedway on June 16, 2018, leading 76 of 200 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Harrison Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | +15 | Brett Moffitt |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Noah Gragson |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Harrison Burton |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | David Gilliland |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Johnny Sauter |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Jesse Little |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Cody Coughlin |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Christian Eckes |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Stewart Friesen |
| 10 | 17 | +7 | Myatt Snider |
| 11 | 15 | +4 | Grant Enfinger |
| 12 | 27 | +15 | Justin Fontaine |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Tanner Thorson |
| 14 | 18 | +4 | Austin Hill |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Austin Wayne Self |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Justin Haley |
| 17 | 11 | -6 | Ben Rhodes |
| 18 | 26 | +8 | Cory Roper |
| 19 | 10 | -9 | Dalton Sargeant |
| 20 | 30 | +10 | Norm Benning |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | Wendell Chavous |
| 22 | 31 | +9 | Jennifer Jo Cobb |
| 23 | 23 | — | Jordan Anderson |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Bayley Currey |
| 25 | 32 | +7 | Bobby Reuse |
| 26 | 2 | -24 | Matt Crafton |
| 27 | 8 | -19 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 28 | 20 | -8 | Reid Wilson |
| 29 | 4 | -25 | Todd Gilliland |
| 30 | 24 | -6 | Ross Chastain |
| 31 | 21 | -10 | Joe Nemechek |
| 32 | 25 | -7 | J.J. Yeley |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Moffitt | 8 | 3 | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | 6 | 4 | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | 3 | 6 | — | — |
| David Gilliland | — | 9 | — | — |
| Johnny Sauter | 5 | 8 | — | — |
| Jesse Little | — | 7 | — | — |
| Cody Coughlin | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Eckes | 10 | — | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Myatt Snider | — | 5 | — | — |
| Grant Enfinger | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Fontaine | — | — | — | — |
| Tanner Thorson | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Wayne Self | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | 7 | — | — | — |
| Ben Rhodes | — | — | — | — |
| Cory Roper | — | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sargeant | 9 | — | — | — |
| Norm Benning | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell Chavous | — | — | — | — |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Anderson | — | — | — | — |
| Bayley Currey | — | — | — | — |
| Bobby Reuse | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Crafton | 2 | 10 | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 1 | 2 | — | — |
| Reid Wilson | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 2 | +19.4 |
| 14 | Austin Hill | 21.4 | 14 | +7.4 |
| 16 | Justin Haley | 19.9 | 16 | +3.9 |
| 27 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 27 | -7.9 |
| 29 | Todd Gilliland | 19.1 | 29 | -9.9 |
| 30 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 30 | -16.7 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 32 | -3.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brett Moffitt: has 5 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 8.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ross Chastain: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 14.8 avg finish, finishing P30 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P21. Track history: 6 starts, 10.5 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store?
Brett Moffitt won the 2018 M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store at Iowa Speedway driving for Hattori Racing Enterprises.
Where was the 2018 M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store held?
The 2018 M&M's 200 presented by Casey's General Store was held at Iowa Speedway on June 16, 2018.