NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON
Darlington Raceway, September 1, 2018
Brad Keselowski
Winner
147
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2018, leading 35 of 147 laps. Cole Custer finished second; Tyler Reddick rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 1, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Cole Custer |
| 3 | 3 | — | Tyler Reddick |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Elliott Sadler |
| 6 | 38 | +32 | Chase Elliott |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Matt Tifft |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Ty Dillon |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Michael Annett |
| 11 | 4 | -7 | Daniel Hemric |
| 12 | 39 | +27 | Brandon Jones |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Ryan Reed |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Landon Cassill |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Ryan Truex |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Ryan Sieg |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Brandon Brown |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Alex Labbe |
| 20 | 20 | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 21 | 19 | -2 | Joey Gase |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | B.J. McLeod |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Cody Ware |
| 25 | 1 | -24 | Ross Chastain |
| 26 | 30 | +4 | Bayley Currey |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Mike Harmon |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Josh Bilicki |
| 29 | 7 | -22 | Kevin Harvick |
| 30 | 22 | -8 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 31 | — | Spencer Boyd |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Chad Finchum |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Carl Long |
| 34 | 2 | -32 | Christopher Bell |
| 35 | 27 | -8 | Timmy Hill |
| 36 | 28 | -8 | David Starr |
| 37 | 26 | -11 | Vinnie Miller |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 39 | 36 | -3 | Jeff Green |
| 40 | 11 | -29 | Austin Cindric |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 1 | +14.4 |
| 2 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 2 | +20.0 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 3 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 4 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 6 | +4.1 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 7 | +10.1 |
| 9 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 9 | +13.9 |
| 15 | Ryan Truex | 16.9 | 15 | +1.9 |
| 21 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 21 | +1.9 |
| 23 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 23 | +1.7 |
| 24 | Cody Ware | 57.0 | 24 | +33.0 |
| 25 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 25 | -10.5 |
| 28 | Josh Bilicki | 26.1 | 28 | -1.9 |
| 30 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 30 | -1.4 |
| 32 | Chad Finchum | 28.2 | 32 | -3.8 |
| 34 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 34 | -24.8 |
| 35 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 35 | -11.1 |
| 36 | David Starr | 21.0 | 36 | -15.0 |
| 40 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 40 | -24.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 30 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P24 vs predicted P57. Track history: 9 starts, 31.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON held?
The 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON was held at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2018.