NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON

Darlington Raceway — September 1, 2018

Brad Keselowski
Winner
147
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2018, leading 35 of 147 laps. Cole Custer finished second; Tyler Reddick rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 1, 2018
Season
2018
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 9 +8 Brad Keselowski
2 6 +4 Cole Custer
3 3 Tyler Reddick
4 5 +1 Denny Hamlin
5 8 +3 Elliott Sadler
6 38 +32 Chase Elliott
7 10 +3 Justin Allgaier
8 16 +8 Matt Tifft
9 12 +3 Ty Dillon
10 15 +5 Michael Annett
11 4 -7 Daniel Hemric
12 39 +27 Brandon Jones
13 14 +1 Ryan Reed
14 21 +7 Landon Cassill
15 13 -2 Ryan Truex
16 17 +1 Jeremy Clements
17 23 +6 Ryan Sieg
18 24 +6 Brandon Brown
19 18 -1 Alex Labbe
20 20 Garrett Smithley
21 19 -2 Joey Gase
22 25 +3 Tommy Joe Martins
23 29 +6 B.J. McLeod
24 32 +8 Cody Ware
25 1 -24 Ross Chastain
26 30 +4 Bayley Currey
27 35 +8 Mike Harmon
28 40 +12 Josh Bilicki
29 7 -22 Kevin Harvick
30 22 -8 J.J. Yeley
31 31 Spencer Boyd
32 37 +5 Chad Finchum
33 34 +1 Carl Long
34 2 -32 Christopher Bell
35 27 -8 Timmy Hill
36 28 -8 David Starr
37 26 -11 Vinnie Miller
38 33 -5 Morgan Shepherd
39 36 -3 Jeff Green
40 11 -29 Austin Cindric
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 11.2 1 +10.2
2 Cole Custer 22.9 2 +20.9
3 Tyler Reddick 6.2 3 +3.2
4 Denny Hamlin 8.2 4 +4.2
6 Chase Elliott 7.8 6 +1.8
7 Justin Allgaier 18.3 7 +11.3
9 Ty Dillon 23.4 9 +14.4
15 Ryan Truex 15.4 15 +0.4
21 Joey Gase 23.4 21 +2.4
23 B.J. McLeod 24.8 23 +1.8
24 Cody Ware 56.1 24 +32.1
25 Ross Chastain 13.3 25 -11.7
28 Josh Bilicki 28.6 28 +0.6
30 J.J. Yeley 28.8 30 -1.2
32 Chad Finchum 26.4 32 -5.6
34 Christopher Bell 10.7 34 -23.3
35 Timmy Hill 23.9 35 -11.1
36 David Starr 20.9 36 -15.1
40 Austin Cindric 15.4 40 -24.6

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 31 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.
  • Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P24 vs predicted P56. Track history: 9 starts, 29.4 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON held?
The 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON was held at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2018.