NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — September 7, 2019

Kyle Busch
Winner
100
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 7, 2019, leading 46 of 100 laps. Justin Allgaier finished second; Noah Gragson rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 7, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 1 Kyle Busch
2 8 +6 Justin Allgaier
3 13 +10 Noah Gragson
4 12 +8 Jeb Burton
5 7 +2 Justin Haley
6 2 -4 Brandon Jones
7 11 +4 Cole Custer
8 9 +1 Chase Briscoe
9 17 +8 Austin Hill
10 10 Ryan Sieg
11 18 +7 Jeremy Clements
12 15 +3 Michael Annett
13 16 +3 Gray Gaulding
14 32 +18 Garrett Smithley
15 20 +5 Ronnie Bassett, Jr.
16 34 +18 Landon Cassill
17 19 +2 Josh Williams
18 29 +11 Joey Gase
19 22 +3 Stefan Parsons
20 26 +6 Ray Black, Jr.
21 23 +2 Josh Bilicki
22 21 -1 B.J. McLeod
23 30 +7 Stephen Leicht
24 28 +4 Tommy Joe Martins
25 27 +2 Matt Mills
26 35 +9 Vinnie Miller
27 6 -21 Austin Cindric
28 31 +3 Brandon Brown
29 3 -26 Christopher Bell
30 4 -26 Tyler Reddick
31 5 -26 John Hunter Nemechek
32 37 +5 Mike Harmon
33 36 +3 Chad Finchum
34 14 -20 Austin Dillon
35 38 +3 Kyle Weatherman
36 33 -3 Morgan Shepherd
37 25 -12 David Starr
38 24 -14 J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Busch 17.0 1 +16.0
2 Justin Allgaier 18.3 2 +16.3
3 Noah Gragson 21.4 3 +18.4
5 Justin Haley 19.9 5 +14.9
7 Cole Custer 22.9 7 +15.9
8 Chase Briscoe 11.9 8 +3.9
9 Austin Hill 20.9 9 +11.9
18 Joey Gase 23.4 18 +5.4
21 Josh Bilicki 28.6 21 +7.6
22 B.J. McLeod 24.8 22 +2.8
27 Austin Cindric 15.4 27 -11.6
29 Christopher Bell 10.7 29 -18.3
30 Tyler Reddick 6.2 30 -23.8
31 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 31 -11.9
33 Chad Finchum 26.4 33 -6.6
34 Austin Dillon 17.1 34 -16.9
37 David Starr 20.9 37 -16.1
38 J.J. Yeley 28.8 38 -9.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Busch: has 23 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 21.2 avg finish, finishing P30 on the day.
  • Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 3 starts, 15.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD was held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 7, 2019.