NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD
Indianapolis Motor Speedway — September 7, 2019
Kyle Busch
Winner
100
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 7, 2019, leading 46 of 100 laps. Justin Allgaier finished second; Noah Gragson rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 7, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Noah Gragson |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Jeb Burton |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Justin Haley |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Brandon Jones |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Cole Custer |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Chase Briscoe |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Austin Hill |
| 10 | 10 | — | Ryan Sieg |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Jeremy Clements |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Michael Annett |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Gray Gaulding |
| 14 | 32 | +18 | Garrett Smithley |
| 15 | 20 | +5 | Ronnie Bassett, Jr. |
| 16 | 34 | +18 | Landon Cassill |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | Josh Williams |
| 18 | 29 | +11 | Joey Gase |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Stefan Parsons |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 21 | 23 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 22 | 21 | -1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Stephen Leicht |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | Matt Mills |
| 26 | 35 | +9 | Vinnie Miller |
| 27 | 6 | -21 | Austin Cindric |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Brandon Brown |
| 29 | 3 | -26 | Christopher Bell |
| 30 | 4 | -26 | Tyler Reddick |
| 31 | 5 | -26 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Mike Harmon |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Chad Finchum |
| 34 | 14 | -20 | Austin Dillon |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 37 | 25 | -12 | David Starr |
| 38 | 24 | -14 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 2 | +16.3 |
| 3 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 3 | +18.4 |
| 5 | Justin Haley | 19.9 | 5 | +14.9 |
| 7 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 7 | +15.9 |
| 8 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 8 | +3.9 |
| 9 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 9 | +11.9 |
| 18 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 18 | +5.4 |
| 21 | Josh Bilicki | 28.6 | 21 | +7.6 |
| 22 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 22 | +2.8 |
| 27 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 27 | -11.6 |
| 29 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 29 | -18.3 |
| 30 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 30 | -23.8 |
| 31 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 31 | -11.9 |
| 33 | Chad Finchum | 26.4 | 33 | -6.6 |
| 34 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 34 | -16.9 |
| 37 | David Starr | 20.9 | 37 | -16.1 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 23 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 5 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 21.2 avg finish, finishing P30 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 3 starts, 15.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD was held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 7, 2019.