STP 500
Martinsville Speedway — March 24, 2019
Brad Keselowski
Winner
500
Laps
20
Entries
3
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2019 STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway on March 24, 2019, leading 446 of 500 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, March 24, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 11 | 10 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Kurt Busch |
| 13 | 25 | +12 | Ty Dillon |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Paul Menard |
| 16 | 29 | +13 | Ryan Preece |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Bubba Wallace |
| 18 | 7 | -11 | Kyle Larson |
| 19 | 16 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 20 | 22 | +2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Joey Logano | 8 | 2 | — | 12 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7 | 10 | — | 5 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Paul Menard | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 1 | +11.0 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 3 | +12.6 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 8 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 10 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 11 | +6.0 |
| 13 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 13 | +11.3 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 16 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 16 | -5.2 |
| 17 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 17 | -3.0 |
| 18 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 18 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 19 | -6.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 52 starts, 12.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 STP 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2019 STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2019 STP 500 held?
The 2019 STP 500 was held at Martinsville Speedway on March 24, 2019.