NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 17, 2021
A.J. Allmendinger
Winner
306
Laps
40
Entries
7
Leaders
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 17, 2021, leading 1 of 306 laps. Austin Cindric finished second; Riley Herbst rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Friday, September 17, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Austin Cindric |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Riley Herbst |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Justin Allgaier |
| 5 | 16 | +11 | Brandon Jones |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Justin Haley |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Harrison Burton |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Myatt Snider |
| 9 | 22 | +13 | Sam Mayer |
| 10 | 4 | -6 | Daniel Hemric |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Ty Gibbs |
| 12 | 1 | -11 | Noah Gragson |
| 13 | 13 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Brandon Brown |
| 15 | 31 | +16 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 32 | +16 | Sage Karam |
| 17 | 36 | +19 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 18 | 39 | +21 | Gray Gaulding |
| 19 | 14 | -5 | Alex Labbe |
| 20 | 18 | -2 | Josh Williams |
| 21 | 21 | — | Brandon Gdovic |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Stefan Parsons |
| 23 | 23 | — | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 24 | 7 | -17 | Jeb Burton |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | B.J. McLeod |
| 27 | 30 | +3 | Jade Buford |
| 28 | 25 | -3 | Jesse Little |
| 29 | 19 | -10 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 30 | 24 | -6 | David Starr |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Spencer Boyd |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Carson Ware |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Chad Finchum |
| 34 | 12 | -22 | Ryan Sieg |
| 35 | 15 | -20 | Josh Berry |
| 36 | 26 | -10 | Matt Mills |
| 37 | 28 | -9 | Ryan Vargas |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Bayley Currey |
| 39 | 35 | -4 | Landon Cassill |
| 40 | 20 | -20 | Brett Moffitt |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 1 | +17.3 |
| 2 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 3 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 3 | +19.1 |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 6 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 6 | +15.2 |
| 11 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 11 | +1.6 |
| 12 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 12 | +11.0 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 26 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 26 | -0.4 |
| 30 | David Starr | 20.2 | 30 | -9.8 |
| 33 | Chad Finchum | 22.1 | 33 | -10.9 |
| 35 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 35 | -16.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- A.J. Allmendinger: has 28 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 21.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ty Gibbs: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P11 on the day.
- Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P22. Track history: 8 starts, 12.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol?
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol held?
The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 17, 2021.