NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 21, 2021

A.J. Allmendinger

Winner

139

Laps

Entries

Leaders

A.J. Allmendinger won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 21, 2021, leading 70 of 139 laps. Brandon Jones finished second; Noah Gragson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 21, 2021

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2021

Winner

A.J. Allmendinger

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	A.J. Allmendinger	139	—	Running	70	58
2	24	+22	Brandon Jones	139	—	Running	—	42
3	4	+1	Noah Gragson	139	—	Running	—	45
4	17	+13	Josh Berry	139	—	Running	24	38
5	6	+1	Harrison Burton	139	—	Running	—	44
6	5	-1	Justin Allgaier	139	—	Running	9	38
7	8	+1	Riley Herbst	139	—	Running	—	31
8	20	+12	Brett Moffitt	139	—	Running	—	31
9	19	+10	Jade Buford	139	—	Running	—	28
10	36	+26	Bubba Wallace	139	—	Running	—	0
11	11	—	Jeremy Clements	139	—	Running	—	26
12	23	+11	Ryan Sieg	139	—	Running	—	25
13	10	-3	Ty Gibbs	139	—	Running	1	42
14	27	+13	Matt Mills	139	—	Running	—	23
15	31	+16	Jordan Anderson	138	—	Running	—	0
16	22	+6	Tyler Reddick	138	—	Running	—	0
17	3	-14	Justin Haley	138	—	Running	—	21
18	14	-4	Josh Williams	138	—	Running	—	19
19	18	-1	Tommy Joe Martins	138	—	Running	—	18
20	29	+9	Colin Garrett	138	—	Running	—	17
21	35	+14	Ryan Vargas	138	—	Running	—	16
22	37	+15	David Starr	137	—	Running	—	15
23	30	+7	Jeffrey Earnhardt	137	—	Running	—	14
24	21	-3	Kyle Weatherman	137	—	Running	—	13
25	38	+13	Colby Howard	137	—	Running	—	12
26	15	-11	Landon Cassill	137	—	Running	—	11
27	40	+13	Gray Gaulding	137	—	Running	—	10
28	28	—	Carson Ware	136	—	Running	—	9
29	12	-17	Jeb Burton	135	—	Running	23	14
30	26	-4	Mason Massey	125	—	Running	—	7
31	13	-18	Alex Labbe	123	—	Running	—	6
32	33	+1	Jesse Little	120	—	Running	—	5
33	16	-17	Sam Mayer	114	—	DNF	—	4
34	39	+5	Bayley Currey	103	—	DNF	—	0
35	34	-1	Caesar Bacarella	45	—	DNF	—	2
36	9	-27	Myatt Snider	45	—	DNF	—	8
37	1	-36	Austin Cindric	41	—	DNF	12	11
38	32	-6	Joe Graf Jr.	37	—	DNF	—	1
39	7	-32	Daniel Hemric	36	—	DNF	—	6
40	25	-15	Brandon Brown	35	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	1	+17.3	Moderate
3	Noah Gragson	21.4	3	+18.4	High Confidence
4	Josh Berry	22.9	4	+18.9	High Confidence
6	Justin Allgaier	18.3	6	+12.3	Coinflip
7	Riley Herbst	21.4	7	+14.4	High Confidence
10	Bubba Wallace	12.7	10	+2.7	Coinflip
13	Ty Gibbs	14.5	13	+1.5	Coinflip
16	Tyler Reddick	6.2	16	-9.8	High Confidence
17	Justin Haley	19.9	17	+2.9	Moderate
22	David Starr	20.9	22	-1.1	Moderate
37	Austin Cindric	15.4	37	-21.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

A.J. Allmendinger: has 28 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 20.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 12 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P16 on the day.
Josh Berry: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 4 starts, 8.5 avg finish.

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Track

Michigan International Speedway

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan?

A.J. Allmendinger won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway.

Where was the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan held?

The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 21, 2021.