NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix
Phoenix Raceway — November 6, 2021
Daniel Hemric
Winner
204
Laps
36
Entries
5
Leaders
Daniel Hemric won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on November 6, 2021, leading 48 of 204 laps. Austin Cindric finished second; Harrison Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 6, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Daniel Hemric |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Austin Cindric |
| 3 | 36 | +33 | Harrison Burton |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Riley Herbst |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Justin Haley |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Brandon Jones |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Brett Moffitt |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 10 | 10 | — | Sheldon Creed |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Michael Annett |
| 12 | 7 | -5 | Noah Gragson |
| 13 | 11 | -2 | Sam Mayer |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 32 | +17 | Dylan Lupton |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Blaine Perkins |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Ryan Sieg |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Jeremy Clements |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Myatt Snider |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Brandon Brown |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | David Starr |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 23 | 9 | -14 | Jeb Burton |
| 24 | 23 | -1 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | Sage Karam |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 27 | 18 | -9 | Kyle Sieg |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Ryan Vargas |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Matt Mills |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Alex Labbe |
| 31 | 25 | -6 | Bayley Currey |
| 32 | 16 | -16 | Josh Williams |
| 33 | 15 | -18 | Jade Buford |
| 34 | 28 | -6 | Stefan Parsons |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 36 | 31 | -5 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 2 | +15.0 |
| 4 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 4 | +18.1 |
| 5 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 5 | +16.2 |
| 6 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 6 | +14.1 |
| 9 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 12 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 12 | +11.0 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 21 | David Starr | 20.2 | 21 | -0.8 |
| 22 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 22 | +6.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Daniel Hemric: has 13 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 17.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Austin Cindric: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 15.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P2 on the day.
- Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P22. Track history: 12 starts, 14.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?
Daniel Hemric won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?
The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 6, 2021.