NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway — October 22, 2022
Noah Gragson
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Noah Gragson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 22, 2022, leading 127 of 200 laps. Ty Gibbs finished second; A.J. Allmendinger rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 22, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Noah Gragson |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Ty Gibbs |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 4 | 4 | — | Daniel Hemric |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Sam Mayer |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Trevor Bayne |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Chandler Smith |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Riley Herbst |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Austin Hill |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Justin Allgaier |
| 11 | 12 | +1 | Josh Berry |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Landon Cassill |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Bayley Currey |
| 14 | 24 | +10 | Brennan Poole |
| 15 | 5 | -10 | Brandon Jones |
| 16 | 29 | +13 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 17 | 7 | -10 | Sheldon Creed |
| 18 | 35 | +17 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Jeb Burton |
| 20 | 8 | -12 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | David Starr |
| 22 | 19 | -3 | Myatt Snider |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Patrick Emerling |
| 24 | 17 | -7 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 25 | 11 | -14 | Nick Sanchez |
| 26 | 26 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 27 | 34 | +7 | Kris Wright |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Julia Landauer |
| 29 | 22 | -7 | Timmy Hill |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | Josh Williams |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Matt Mills |
| 33 | 25 | -8 | Ryan Sieg |
| 34 | 18 | -16 | Stefan Parsons |
| 35 | 33 | -2 | Kyle Sieg |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | B.J. McLeod |
| 37 | 28 | -9 | Mason Massey |
| 38 | 14 | -24 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 1 | +20.4 |
| 2 | Ty Gibbs | 14.5 | 2 | +12.5 |
| 3 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 3 | +15.3 |
| 8 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 8 | +13.4 |
| 9 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 9 | +11.9 |
| 10 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 10 | +8.3 |
| 11 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 11 | +11.9 |
| 14 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 14 | +10.7 |
| 18 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 21 | David Starr | 20.9 | 21 | -0.1 |
| 29 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 29 | -5.1 |
| 36 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 36 | -11.2 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Noah Gragson: has 10 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ty Gibbs: was the model’s top pick based on 3 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish, finishing P2 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami?
Noah Gragson won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on October 22, 2022.