NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville
Nashville Superspeedway — June 25, 2022
Justin Allgaier
Winner
188
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2022, leading 134 of 188 laps. Trevor Bayne finished second; Riley Herbst rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Trevor Bayne |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Riley Herbst |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Ty Gibbs |
| 5 | 21 | +16 | Sam Mayer |
| 6 | 27 | +21 | Ryan Preece |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Austin Hill |
| 9 | 24 | +15 | Ryan Sieg |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Brett Moffitt |
| 11 | 17 | +6 | Brandon Brown |
| 12 | 25 | +13 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Noah Gragson |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Brandon Jones |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Stefan Parsons |
| 16 | 2 | -14 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Daniel Hemric |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | Landon Cassill |
| 19 | 29 | +10 | Ryan Vargas |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 21 | 18 | -3 | Tyler Reddick |
| 22 | 22 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Alex Labbe |
| 24 | 20 | -4 | Ryan Ellis |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Kyle Sieg |
| 26 | 38 | +12 | Patrick Emerling |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Myatt Snider |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | B.J. McLeod |
| 29 | 9 | -20 | Josh Berry |
| 30 | 30 | — | Dillon Bassett |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | Bayley Currey |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Natalie Decker |
| 33 | 33 | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 34 | 32 | -2 | Josh Williams |
| 35 | 7 | -28 | Jeb Burton |
| 36 | 19 | -17 | Sheldon Creed |
| 37 | 13 | -24 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 38 | 16 | -22 | Kyle Weatherman |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 1 | +17.3 |
| 3 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 3 | +18.4 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 14.5 | 4 | +10.5 |
| 6 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 6 | +4.1 |
| 8 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 8 | +12.9 |
| 13 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 13 | +8.4 |
| 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 16 | +2.3 |
| 20 | Anthony Alfredo | 20.9 | 20 | +0.9 |
| 21 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 21 | -14.8 |
| 28 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 28 | -3.2 |
| 29 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 29 | -6.1 |
| 33 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 33 | -4.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 7 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 9.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish, finishing P21 on the day.
- Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 5 starts, 9.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville at Nashville Superspeedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville was held at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2022.