NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville

Nashville Superspeedway — June 25, 2022

Justin Allgaier
Winner
188
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders

Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2022, leading 134 of 188 laps. Trevor Bayne finished second; Riley Herbst rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Season
2022
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 5 +4 Justin Allgaier
2 3 +1 Trevor Bayne
3 1 -2 Riley Herbst
4 14 +10 Ty Gibbs
5 21 +16 Sam Mayer
6 27 +21 Ryan Preece
7 11 +4 Jeffrey Earnhardt
8 4 -4 Austin Hill
9 24 +15 Ryan Sieg
10 15 +5 Brett Moffitt
11 17 +6 Brandon Brown
12 25 +13 Parker Retzlaff
13 6 -7 Noah Gragson
14 8 -6 Brandon Jones
15 23 +8 Stefan Parsons
16 2 -14 A.J. Allmendinger
17 10 -7 Daniel Hemric
18 12 -6 Landon Cassill
19 29 +10 Ryan Vargas
20 26 +6 Anthony Alfredo
21 18 -3 Tyler Reddick
22 22 Jeremy Clements
23 31 +8 Alex Labbe
24 20 -4 Ryan Ellis
25 28 +3 Kyle Sieg
26 38 +12 Patrick Emerling
27 35 +8 Myatt Snider
28 34 +6 B.J. McLeod
29 9 -20 Josh Berry
30 30 Dillon Bassett
31 36 +5 Bayley Currey
32 37 +5 Natalie Decker
33 33 J.J. Yeley
34 32 -2 Josh Williams
35 7 -28 Jeb Burton
36 19 -17 Sheldon Creed
37 13 -24 Joe Graf Jr.
38 16 -22 Kyle Weatherman
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Justin Allgaier 18.3 1 +17.3
3 Riley Herbst 21.4 3 +18.4
4 Ty Gibbs 14.5 4 +10.5
6 Ryan Preece 10.1 6 +4.1
8 Austin Hill 20.9 8 +12.9
13 Noah Gragson 21.4 13 +8.4
16 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 16 +2.3
20 Anthony Alfredo 20.9 20 +0.9
21 Tyler Reddick 6.2 21 -14.8
28 B.J. McLeod 24.8 28 -3.2
29 Josh Berry 22.9 29 -6.1
33 J.J. Yeley 28.8 33 -4.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Justin Allgaier: has 7 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 9.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish, finishing P21 on the day.
  • Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 5 starts, 9.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville at Nashville Superspeedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Nashville was held at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2022.