NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix
Phoenix Raceway — November 4, 2023
Cole Custer
Winner
202
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Cole Custer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on November 4, 2023, leading 96 of 202 laps. Sheldon Creed finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 4, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Cole Custer |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Sheldon Creed |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 4 | 9 | +5 | Riley Herbst |
| 5 | 16 | +11 | Sam Mayer |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Josh Berry |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Austin Hill |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | Chandler Smith |
| 9 | 1 | -8 | Sammy Smith |
| 10 | 24 | +14 | Kaz Grala |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Jeb Burton |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Rajah Caruth |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Brett Moffitt |
| 16 | 30 | +14 | Parker Kligerman |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Ryan Sieg |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Dawson Cram |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Jeremy Clements |
| 21 | 12 | -9 | Daniel Hemric |
| 22 | 4 | -18 | Myatt Snider |
| 23 | 34 | +11 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 24 | 38 | +14 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Josh Williams |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Ryan Ellis |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 28 | 3 | -25 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 29 | 29 | — | Brennan Poole |
| 30 | 33 | +3 | Timmy Hill |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 32 | 32 | — | Blaine Perkins |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Stefan Parsons |
| 34 | 10 | -24 | Connor Mosack |
| 35 | 31 | -4 | Chris Hacker |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 37 | 23 | -14 | Derek Kraus |
| 38 | 22 | -16 | Kyle Sieg |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 1 | +22.0 |
| 3 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 4 | +18.1 |
| 6 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 6 | +13.0 |
| 7 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 7 | +13.2 |
| 24 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 24 | -2.0 |
| 27 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 27 | -5.0 |
| 28 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 28 | -7.9 |
| 29 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 29 | -5.9 |
| 30 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 30 | -5.7 |
| 36 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 36 | -7.9 |
| 37 | Derek Kraus | 22.2 | 37 | -14.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Cole Custer: has 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 16.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Justin Allgaier: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?
Cole Custer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 4, 2023.