NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix

Phoenix Raceway — November 4, 2023

Cole Custer
Winner
202
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders

Cole Custer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway on November 4, 2023, leading 96 of 202 laps. Sheldon Creed finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 4, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 7 +6 Cole Custer
2 5 +3 Sheldon Creed
3 8 +5 Justin Allgaier
4 9 +5 Riley Herbst
5 16 +11 Sam Mayer
6 15 +9 Josh Berry
7 2 -5 Austin Hill
8 6 -2 Chandler Smith
9 1 -8 Sammy Smith
10 24 +14 Kaz Grala
11 20 +9 Brandon Jones
12 18 +6 Jeb Burton
13 14 +1 Parker Retzlaff
14 13 -1 Rajah Caruth
15 19 +4 Brett Moffitt
16 30 +14 Parker Kligerman
17 21 +4 Kyle Weatherman
18 11 -7 Ryan Sieg
19 17 -2 Dawson Cram
20 25 +5 Jeremy Clements
21 12 -9 Daniel Hemric
22 4 -18 Myatt Snider
23 34 +11 Jeffrey Earnhardt
24 38 +14 Anthony Alfredo
25 26 +1 Josh Williams
26 27 +1 Ryan Ellis
27 28 +1 Joey Gase
28 3 -25 John Hunter Nemechek
29 29 Brennan Poole
30 33 +3 Timmy Hill
31 37 +6 Joe Graf Jr.
32 32 Blaine Perkins
33 36 +3 Stefan Parsons
34 10 -24 Connor Mosack
35 31 -4 Chris Hacker
36 35 -1 J.J. Yeley
37 23 -14 Derek Kraus
38 22 -16 Kyle Sieg
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Cole Custer 23.0 1 +22.0
3 Justin Allgaier 17.7 3 +14.7
4 Riley Herbst 22.1 4 +18.1
6 Josh Berry 19.0 6 +13.0
7 Austin Hill 20.2 7 +13.2
24 Anthony Alfredo 22.0 24 -2.0
27 Joey Gase 22.0 27 -5.0
28 John Hunter Nemechek 20.1 28 -7.9
29 Brennan Poole 23.1 29 -5.9
30 Timmy Hill 24.3 30 -5.7
36 J.J. Yeley 28.1 36 -7.9
37 Derek Kraus 22.2 37 -14.8

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Cole Custer: has 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 16.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Justin Allgaier: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix?
Cole Custer won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix at Phoenix Raceway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Phoenix was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 4, 2023.