NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma
Sonoma Raceway — July 12, 2025
Connor Zilisch
Winner
79
Laps
38
Entries
4
Leaders
Connor Zilisch won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway on July 12, 2025, leading 46 of 79 laps. Shane van Gisbergen finished second; William Sawalich rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Track
Season
2025
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Connor Zilisch |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | William Sawalich |
| 4 | 23 | +19 | Nick Sanchez |
| 5 | 15 | +10 | Riley Herbst |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Justin Allgaier |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Taylor Gray |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Carson Kvapil |
| 9 | 6 | -3 | Sammy Smith |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Sheldon Creed |
| 11 | 33 | +22 | Austin Green |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Austin Hill |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Brandon Jones |
| 14 | 25 | +11 | Josh Bilicki |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Josh Williams |
| 16 | 36 | +20 | Will Rodgers |
| 17 | 3 | -14 | Sam Mayer |
| 18 | 35 | +17 | Dean Thompson |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | Blaine Perkins |
| 20 | 17 | -3 | Jeb Burton |
| 21 | 19 | -2 | Harrison Burton |
| 22 | 32 | +10 | Brennan Poole |
| 23 | 13 | -10 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 24 | 14 | -10 | Corey Day |
| 25 | 37 | +12 | Kyle Sieg |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 27 | 27 | — | Ryan Ellis |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | Parker Retzlaff |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Kris Wright |
| 30 | 30 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Brad Perez |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Daniel Dye |
| 33 | 22 | -11 | Connor Mosack |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Christian Eckes |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | Ryan Sieg |
| 36 | 26 | -10 | Sage Karam |
| 37 | 20 | -17 | Alex Labbe |
| 38 | 4 | -34 | Jesse Love |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Zilisch | 21.4 | 1 | +20.4 |
| 2 | Shane van Gisbergen | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Riley Herbst | 25.7 | 5 | +20.7 |
| 6 | Justin Allgaier | 16.8 | 6 | +10.8 |
| 12 | Austin Hill | 21.4 | 12 | +9.4 |
| 14 | Josh Bilicki | 29.0 | 14 | +15.0 |
| 22 | Brennan Poole | 21.4 | 22 | -0.6 |
| 23 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 23 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Daniel Dye | 20.8 | 32 | -11.2 |
| 38 | Jesse Love | 21.4 | 38 | -16.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Shane van Gisbergen: was the model’s top pick based on 3 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 1.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Riley Herbst: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P26. Track history: 5 starts, 18.2 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma?
Connor Zilisch won the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway.
Where was the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma held?
The 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma was held at Sonoma Raceway on July 12, 2025.