Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 14 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 11.8 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 13 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 17.5 average finish.
- Chase Elliott has 13 starts at Dover Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 9.6 average finish.
Based on O'Reilly Series results at Dover Motor Speedway from 1982-2026.
The wildest race at Dover Motor Speedway was the 2024 Würth 400 with a chaos score of 72.2.
See track historyDenny Hamlin won the 2025 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.
See Denny Hamlin's resultsThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the BetRivers 200 on?
The BetRivers 200 airs on CW on Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, broadcast from Dover Motor Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.
What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?
The BetRivers 200 green flag is set for 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, May 16, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 1656 | P4 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 1648 | P8 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 1623 | P1 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 1594 | P18 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 1577 | P14 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 1575 | P6 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1550 | P31 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | 1544 | P5 |
| 9 | Ross Chastain | 1539 | P33 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 1536 | P10 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.8 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17.5% |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 16.2% |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 6 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 11.5% |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 9.5% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.3 | 8.2% |
| 9 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 7.0% |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 5.5% |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 4.9% |
| 12 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 4.3% |
| 13 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 3.4% |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 17 | Carson Hocevar | 14.7 | 2.4% |
| 18 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 2.1% |
| 19 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 1.7% |
| 20 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1.3% |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 22 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 0.7% |
| 24 | Casey Mears | 18.0 | 0.6% |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.4% |
| 27 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 28 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 30 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Katherine Legge | 20.3 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 0.2% |
| 33 | Zane Smith | 20.2 | 0.2% |
| 34 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 29.8 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24
(1/5 top-5 hits)
38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races
History at Dover Motor Speedway
O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (1 race)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NASCAR Xfinity Series at Dover | Connor Zilisch |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Connor Zilisch | 77 |
| Taylor Gray | 49 |
| Brandon Jones | 5 |
| Kyle Sieg | 3 |
Track Type Tendencies
Dover Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.
Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.