Food City 500

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 26, 2006

Kurt Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kurt Busch won the 2006 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 26, 2006, leading 33 of 500 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 26, 2006

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Kurt Busch

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	33	185
2	14	+12	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	8	175
3	7	+4	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	124	170
4	3	-1	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	160
5	30	+25	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	155
6	4	-2	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	150
7	2	-5	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	52	151
8	20	+12	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	34	147
9	6	-3	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	138
10	23	+13	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	134
11	19	+8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	130
12	1	-11	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	245	137
13	13	—	Elliott Sadler		500	—	Running	—	124
14	33	+19	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	121
15	29	+14	Jeff Green		500	—	Running	—	118
16	10	-6	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	115
17	35	+18	Sterling Marlin		500	—	Running	—	112
18	28	+10	Kyle Petty	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	109
19	40	+21	Scott Wimmer		500	—	Running	—	106
20	15	-5	Dale Jarrett		500	—	Running	—	103
21	11	-10	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	3	105
22	22	—	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	97
23	32	+9	Dave Blaney	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	94
24	21	-3	Ken Schrader		499	—	Running	—	91
25	12	-13	Casey Mears	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	88
26	37	+11	Robby Gordon		497	—	Running	—	85
27	36	+9	Terry Labonte		497	—	Running	—	82
28	16	-12	Joe Nemechek		495	—	Running	—	79
29	27	-2	Clint Bowyer		495	—	Running	—	76
30	5	-25	Jimmie Johnson		487	—	Running	—	73
31	39	+8	Kevin Lepage		485	—	Running	1	75
32	34	+2	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	481	—	Running	—	67
33	24	-9	J.J. Yeley		469	—	Running	—	64
34	18	-16	Jeff Burton		467	—	Running	—	61
35	8	-27	Jamie McMurray		440	—	Running	—	58
36	26	-10	David Stremme	Dodge	435	—	Running	—	55
37	17	-20	Brian Vickers		434	—	Running	—	52
38	25	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.		430	—	Running	—	49
39	43	+4	Stanton Barrett		381	—	DNF	—	46
40	41	+1	Travis Kvapil		349	—	DNF	—	43
41	38	-3	Scott Riggs		344	—	DNF	—	40
42	31	-11	Brent Sherman		302	—	DNF	—	37
43	42	-1	Hermie Sadler		96	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
8	Kyle Busch	15.6	8	+7.6	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	6.8	14	-7.2	High Confidence
25	Casey Mears	18.0	25	-7.0	Moderate
30	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	30	-12.3	Moderate
33	J.J. Yeley	28.1	33	-4.9	High Confidence
38	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	38	-24.2	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kurt Busch: has 41 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.9 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P14 on the day.

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