DirecTV 500

Martinsville Speedway — April 2, 2006

Tony Stewart

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2006 DirecTV 500 at Martinsville Speedway on April 2, 2006, leading 288 of 500 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 2, 2006

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	288	190
2	8	+6	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	—	170
3	1	-2	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	195	170
4	29	+25	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	160
5	17	+12	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	—	155
6	7	+1	Elliott Sadler		500	—	Running	—	150
7	26	+19	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	146
8	24	+16	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	—	142
9	2	-7	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	6	143
10	11	+1	Scott Riggs		500	—	Running	—	134
11	9	-2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	130
12	25	+13	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	127
13	30	+17	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	124
14	6	-8	Sterling Marlin		500	—	Running	9	126
15	28	+13	Dale Jarrett		500	—	Running	1	123
16	15	-1	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	115
17	14	-3	Dave Blaney	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	112
18	4	-14	Ryan Newman	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	109
19	21	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.		498	—	Running	—	106
20	18	-2	J.J. Yeley		497	—	Running	1	108
21	12	-9	Tony Raines	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	100
22	42	+20	Clint Bowyer		496	—	Running	—	97
23	22	-1	Joe Nemechek		495	—	Running	—	94
24	16	-8	Matt Kenseth		493	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	Jeff Green		491	—	Running	—	88
26	23	-3	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	462	—	Running	—	85
27	32	+5	Casey Mears	Dodge	456	—	Running	—	82
28	36	+8	Scott Wimmer		451	—	Running	—	79
29	33	+4	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	445	—	Running	—	76
30	37	+7	Kyle Petty	Dodge	439	—	Running	—	73
31	10	-21	Greg Biffle		436	—	Running	—	70
32	13	-19	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	429	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Jeff Burton		426	—	Running	—	64
34	40	+6	Travis Kvapil		403	—	DNF	—	61
35	5	-30	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	374	—	DNF	—	58
36	31	-5	Chad Chaffin		345	—	DNF	—	55
37	41	+4	Denny Hamlin		307	—	DNF	—	52
38	38	—	David Stremme	Dodge	299	—	DNF	—	49
39	35	-4	Stanton Barrett		280	—	DNF	—	46
40	19	-21	Ken Schrader		164	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Mike Garvey	Dodge	93	—	DNF	—	0
42	43	+1	Chad Blount	Dodge	92	—	DNF	—	37
43	27	-16	Robby Gordon		7	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	3	+14.7	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	15.6	5	+10.6	Coinflip
19	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	19	-5.2	Coinflip
20	J.J. Yeley	28.1	20	+8.1	High Confidence
27	Casey Mears	18.0	27	-9.0	Moderate
37	Denny Hamlin	6.8	37	-30.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 34 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P37 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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