Aaron's 499

Talladega Superspeedway — May 1, 2006

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2006 Aaron's 499 at Talladega Superspeedway on May 1, 2006, leading 3 of 188 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Brian Vickers rounded out the podium. The race featured 22 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Monday, May 1, 2006

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2006

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

22 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	16	+15	Jimmie Johnson		188	—	Running	3	185
2	2	—	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	11	175
3	33	+30	Brian Vickers		188	—	Running	7	170
4	40	+36	Jeff Burton		188	—	Running	—	160
5	8	+3	Jamie McMurray		188	—	Running	18	160
6	12	+6	Matt Kenseth		188	—	Running	23	155
7	5	-2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	188	—	Running	9	151
8	3	-5	Carl Edwards		188	—	Running	7	147
9	32	+23	Scott Riggs		188	—	Running	—	138
10	19	+9	Robby Gordon		188	—	Running	1	139
11	11	—	J.J. Yeley		188	—	Running	1	135
12	4	-8	Dale Jarrett		188	—	Running	1	132
13	36	+23	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	129
14	39	+25	Jeff Green		188	—	Running	1	126
15	14	-1	Jeff Gordon		188	—	Running	62	128
16	1	-15	Elliott Sadler		188	—	Running	23	120
17	29	+12	Tony Raines	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	112
18	28	+10	Kyle Petty	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	109
19	26	+7	Travis Kvapil		188	—	Running	—	106
20	25	+5	Casey Mears	Dodge	188	—	Running	2	108
21	43	+22	Scott Wimmer		188	—	Running	1	105
22	30	+8	Denny Hamlin		187	—	Running	1	102
23	42	+19	Kevin Harvick		187	—	Running	—	94
24	38	+14	Dave Blaney	Dodge	183	—	Running	1	96
25	21	-4	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	179	—	Running	1	93
26	41	+15	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	177	—	Running	—	85
27	6	-21	Joe Nemechek		173	—	Running	5	87
28	23	-5	Kevin Lepage		173	—	Running	1	84
29	31	+2	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	163	—	Running	—	76
30	34	+4	Chad Chaffin		152	—	DNF	—	73
31	27	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		151	—	DNF	8	75
32	13	-19	Kyle Busch		150	—	DNF	—	67
33	18	-15	Ryan Newman	Dodge	106	—	DNF	—	64
34	17	-17	David Stremme	Dodge	106	—	DNF	—	61
35	10	-25	Mark Martin		101	—	DNF	—	58
36	20	-16	Martin Truex, Jr.		97	—	DNF	—	55
37	9	-28	Sterling Marlin		91	—	DNF	—	52
38	7	-31	Greg Biffle		45	—	DNF	—	49
39	37	-2	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	17	—	DNF	—	46
40	15	-25	Clint Bowyer		16	—	DNF	—	43
41	22	-19	Kirk Shelmerdine		9	—	DNF	—	40
42	35	-7	Ken Schrader		8	—	DNF	—	37
43	24	-19	Hermie Sadler		8	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	1	+17.9	Coinflip
11	J.J. Yeley	25.2	11	+14.2	High Confidence
20	Casey Mears	18.5	20	-1.5	Coinflip
22	Denny Hamlin	16.0	22	-6.0	Coinflip
32	Kyle Busch	15.1	32	-16.9	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	36	-15.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 39 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P32 on the day.

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