Subway 500

Martinsville Speedway — October 22, 2006

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2006 Subway 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 22, 2006, leading 245 of 500 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Bobby Labonte rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	245	190
2	3	+1	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	28	175
3	30	+27	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	500	—	Running	43	170
4	5	+1	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	160
5	2	-3	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	165	160
6	19	+13	Casey Mears	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	150
7	32	+25	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	146
8	8	—	Jeff Green		500	—	Running	—	142
9	12	+3	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	138
10	14	+4	Kyle Petty	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	134
11	20	+9	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	130
12	27	+15	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	127
13	4	-9	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	124
14	11	-3	Tony Raines	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	121
15	13	-2	David Stremme	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	118
16	39	+23	Dale Jarrett		500	—	Running	—	115
17	21	+4	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	—	112
18	15	-3	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	—	109
19	24	+5	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	106
20	23	+3	Joe Nemechek		500	—	Running	—	103
21	22	+1	Sterling Marlin		500	—	Running	—	100
22	7	-15	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	97
23	37	+14	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	94
24	25	+1	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	91
25	41	+16	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	88
26	35	+9	Ward Burton		500	—	Running	—	85
27	1	-26	Kurt Busch	Dodge	496	—	Running	19	87
28	29	+1	David Gilliland		496	—	Running	—	79
29	40	+11	Kenny Wallace		496	—	Running	—	76
30	17	-13	Scott Riggs		495	—	Running	—	73
31	36	+5	J.J. Yeley		494	—	Running	—	70
32	38	+6	Greg Biffle		486	—	Running	—	67
33	6	-27	Dave Blaney	Dodge	485	—	Running	—	64
34	33	-1	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	472	—	Running	—	61
35	16	-19	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	460	—	Running	—	58
36	18	-18	Martin Truex, Jr.		453	—	Running	—	55
37	26	-11	Robby Gordon		416	—	DNF	—	52
38	34	-4	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	412	—	DNF	—	49
39	43	+4	Mike Skinner	Dodge	341	—	DNF	—	46
40	31	-9	Travis Kvapil		332	—	DNF	—	43
41	10	-31	Ken Schrader		331	—	DNF	—	40
42	28	-14	Jeff Burton		217	—	DNF	—	37
43	42	-1	Kevin Lepage		209	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
6	Casey Mears	18.0	6	+12.0	Moderate
18	Kyle Busch	15.6	18	-2.4	Coinflip
31	J.J. Yeley	28.1	31	-2.9	High Confidence
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	36	-22.2	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

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