Aaron's 499 at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — April 27, 2008

Kyle Busch

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2008 Aaron's 499 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on April 27, 2008, leading 12 of 188 laps. Juan Pablo Montoya finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 20 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2008

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

20 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Kyle Busch		188	—	Running	12	190
2	26	+24	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	175
3	7	+4	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	37	170
4	6	+2	David Ragan		188	—	Running	—	160
5	8	+3	Brian Vickers		188	—	Running	4	160
6	14	+8	Travis Kvapil		188	—	Running	—	150
7	36	+29	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	—	146
8	21	+13	Ryan Newman	Dodge	188	—	Running	5	147
9	41	+32	Clint Bowyer		188	—	Running	—	138
10	9	-1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		188	—	Running	46	139
11	35	+24	Robby Gordon	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	130
12	38	+26	Jeff Burton		188	—	Running	1	132
13	10	-3	Jimmie Johnson		188	—	Running	1	129
14	22	+8	Paul Menard		188	—	Running	3	126
15	40	+25	David Gilliland		188	—	Running	2	123
16	19	+3	Scott Riggs		188	—	Running	—	115
17	32	+15	Jamie McMurray		188	—	Running	—	112
18	31	+13	Greg Biffle		188	—	Running	—	109
19	20	+1	Jeff Gordon		188	—	Running	1	111
20	30	+10	David Reutimann		188	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Regan Smith		188	—	Running	1	105
22	16	-6	Sterling Marlin		188	—	Running	—	97
23	42	+19	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	99
24	39	+15	Kevin Harvick		188	—	Running	1	96
25	1	-24	Joe Nemechek		188	—	Running	—	88
26	24	-2	Michael McDowell		188	—	Running	—	85
27	27	—	Michael Waltrip		188	—	Running	4	87
28	43	+15	David Stremme	Dodge	187	—	Running	2	84
29	18	-11	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	187	—	Running	3	81
30	4	-26	A.J. Allmendinger		187	—	Running	1	78
31	17	-14	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	186	—	Running	—	70
32	15	-17	Kyle Petty	Dodge	186	—	Running	—	67
33	28	-5	Aric Almirola		186	—	Running	—	64
34	34	—	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	183	—	Running	—	61
35	37	+2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	180	—	Running	—	58
36	12	-24	Jon Wood		179	—	Running	—	55
37	33	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		174	—	Running	—	52
38	2	-36	Tony Stewart		173	—	Running	61	59
39	23	-16	Kurt Busch	Dodge	173	—	Running	—	46
40	11	-29	Carl Edwards		153	—	DNF	—	43
41	13	-28	Matt Kenseth		150	—	DNF	—	40
42	3	-39	Ken Schrader		141	—	DNF	1	42
43	25	-18	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	4	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	16.0	3	+13.0	Coinflip
7	Casey Mears	18.5	7	+11.5	Coinflip
13	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	13	+5.9	Coinflip
26	Michael McDowell	20.0	26	-6.0	Coinflip
30	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	30	-9.9	Coinflip
37	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	37	-16.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Denny Hamlin: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 44 starts, 17.9 avg finish.

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