Dickies 500 at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway — November 2, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 Dickies 500 at Texas at Texas Motor Speedway on November 2, 2008, leading 212 of 334 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Jamie McMurray rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Track

Texas Motor Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	16	+15	Carl Edwards		334	—	Running	212	195
2	1	-1	Jeff Gordon		334	—	Running	15	175
3	4	+1	Jamie McMurray		334	—	Running	56	170
4	3	-1	Clint Bowyer		334	—	Running	36	165
5	19	+14	Greg Biffle		334	—	Running	2	160
6	29	+23	Kyle Busch		334	—	Running	2	155
7	23	+16	Kevin Harvick		334	—	Running	—	146
8	2	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.		334	—	Running	—	142
9	6	-3	Matt Kenseth		334	—	Running	—	138
10	12	+2	David Reutimann		334	—	Running	5	139
11	18	+7	David Ragan		334	—	Running	—	130
12	20	+8	Mark Martin		334	—	Running	—	127
13	38	+25	Jeff Burton		333	—	Running	—	124
14	14	—	Casey Mears		333	—	Running	—	121
15	7	-8	Jimmie Johnson		333	—	Running	—	118
16	8	-8	Tony Stewart		333	—	Running	—	115
17	17	—	Denny Hamlin		333	—	Running	—	112
18	13	-5	Brian Vickers		332	—	Running	5	114
19	37	+18	Brad Keselowski		332	—	Running	—	106
20	5	-15	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		332	—	Running	1	108
21	24	+3	Marcos Ambrose		332	—	Running	—	100
22	11	-11	Paul Menard		332	—	Running	—	97
23	21	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	332	—	Running	—	94
24	28	+4	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	331	—	Running	—	91
25	10	-15	Scott Riggs		331	—	Running	—	88
26	36	+10	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	331	—	Running	—	85
27	15	-12	Michael Waltrip		331	—	Running	—	82
28	31	+3	Ryan Newman	Dodge	331	—	Running	—	79
29	41	+12	Dave Blaney		331	—	Running	—	76
30	32	+2	Ken Schrader		331	—	Running	—	73
31	39	+8	Bill Elliott		330	—	Running	—	70
32	42	+10	Travis Kvapil		330	—	Running	—	67
33	33	—	Scott Speed		330	—	Running	—	64
34	25	-9	Regan Smith		329	—	Running	—	61
35	30	-5	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	329	—	Running	—	58
36	22	-14	Robby Gordon	Dodge	329	—	Running	—	55
37	9	-28	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	328	—	Running	—	52
38	27	-11	Joe Nemechek		328	—	Running	—	49
39	35	-4	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	328	—	Running	—	46
40	43	+3	Joey Logano		327	—	Running	—	0
41	40	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	DNF	—	40
42	34	-8	David Gilliland		266	—	DNF	—	37
43	26	-17	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	262	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Kyle Busch	17.0	6	+11.0	Coinflip
7	Kevin Harvick	11.2	7	+4.2	Coinflip
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	8	+7.4	Coinflip
14	Casey Mears	17.1	14	+3.1	Coinflip
15	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
17	Denny Hamlin	8.2	17	-8.8	High Confidence
19	Brad Keselowski	11.2	19	-7.8	Coinflip
26	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	26	-7.7	Moderate
40	Joey Logano	12.7	40	-27.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 39 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 45 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P17. Track history: 69 starts, 9.8 avg finish.

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