NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 19, 2008

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

504

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 19, 2008, leading 339 of 504 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson		504	—	Running	339	195
2	10	+8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		504	—	Running	—	170
3	4	+1	Carl Edwards		504	—	Running	—	165
4	8	+4	Jeff Gordon		504	—	Running	57	165
5	12	+7	Denny Hamlin		504	—	Running	—	155
6	23	+17	Casey Mears		504	—	Running	—	150
7	6	-1	Kevin Harvick		504	—	Running	—	146
8	11	+3	Matt Kenseth		504	—	Running	8	147
9	5	-4	Clint Bowyer		504	—	Running	—	138
10	18	+8	Martin Truex, Jr.		504	—	Running	—	134
11	17	+6	Brian Vickers		504	—	Running	—	130
12	3	-9	Greg Biffle		504	—	Running	9	132
13	13	—	David Ragan		504	—	Running	—	124
14	24	+10	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	121
15	39	+24	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	118
16	37	+21	Bill Elliott		503	—	Running	—	115
17	2	-15	Jeff Burton		503	—	Running	—	112
18	31	+13	Michael Waltrip		503	—	Running	—	109
19	25	+6	Travis Kvapil		502	—	Running	—	106
20	15	-5	Aric Almirola		502	—	Running	53	108
21	32	+11	Scott Riggs		502	—	Running	1	105
22	33	+11	Dave Blaney		502	—	Running	—	97
23	16	-7	Ryan Newman	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	94
24	26	+2	David Reutimann		501	—	Running	—	91
25	41	+16	Chad McCumbee	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	88
26	7	-19	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	85
27	27	—	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	82
28	40	+12	Ken Schrader		500	—	Running	—	79
29	9	-20	Kyle Busch		497	—	Running	—	76
30	35	+5	Scott Speed		497	—	Running	—	73
31	43	+12	Tony Raines		496	—	Running	—	70
32	28	-4	David Gilliland		483	—	Running	—	67
33	14	-19	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	475	—	Running	—	64
34	36	+2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	473	—	Running	—	61
35	29	-6	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	473	—	Running	—	58
36	19	-17	Kurt Busch	Dodge	470	—	Running	—	55
37	21	-16	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	470	—	Running	—	52
38	20	-18	Jamie McMurray		466	—	Running	37	54
39	38	-1	Mike Bliss		455	—	Running	—	46
40	34	-6	Robby Gordon	Dodge	453	—	Running	—	43
41	22	-19	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	437	—	Running	—	40
42	30	-12	Regan Smith		417	—	DNF	—	37
43	42	-1	Joe Nemechek		115	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.1 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	18.0	1	+17.0	Moderate
5	Denny Hamlin	8.6	5	+3.6	Moderate
6	Casey Mears	17.7	6	+11.7	Coinflip
7	Kevin Harvick	10.3	7	+3.3	Moderate
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	10	+4.0	Coinflip
15	A.J. Allmendinger	19.0	15	+4.0	Moderate
20	Aric Almirola	15.0	20	-5.0	Coinflip
23	Ryan Newman	23.0	23	0.0	High Confidence
29	Kyle Busch	14.0	29	-15.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P5 on the day.

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